Week 11 Picks

Week 10: 10-4  Overall: 90-56

Cardinals vs. Falcons

The Cardinals have loss 5 straight.  Their team is beatup and the defense is tired and frustrated.  I don’t know about other fans but I know I am already looking for remedies for next season.  They still can play spoiler, especially since they’ve played in some close games many times this year.  If they manage to keep up with the Falcons they have a chance.

Pick: Falcons

Browns vs. Cowboys

The Browns are the best 2 win team in the NFL.  The Cowboys show at times that they should be better than their 4-5 record.  Then other times you go, oh right, thats why they have a losing record.  This game could very well be close, closer then the 8 point spread.  But I’m still going Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys

Packers vs. Lions

Just when I thought you know, maybe the Lions can make a late push and surprise some people.  They lose to the Vikings which would have made it 3 wins in a row.  Now they face the ever dangerous although beat up Packers.  If Nelson plays I see the Packers winning.  If he doesn’t I think it’s more of a toss up.  Gennings being out so much this year has slowed down what was the best offense in football last year (well tied for first maybe with New Orleans).

Pick: Packers

Bengals vs. Chiefs

The Bengals are just another one of those teams you expected to be better this year.  After a hot 3-1 start they drop 4 in a row.  Then they put a womping on the struggling Giants.  As long as Dalton and Green are on the field together, this team could hang with anyone.  This week they have their weakest opponent of the season.  They should be ok.

Pick: Bengals

Jets vs. Rams

Both of these teams haven’t looked that great.  I’ve seen some rankings that really like the Rams though.  I guess when you look at each team the Rams are less of a mess.

Pick: Rams

Eagles vs. Redskins

This one was a tough one for me.  I am actually really excited to see an offense by the Eagles that flows through McCoy and not through Vick.  I think his absence in the offense might just facilitate that.  Right?  We will see how rattled Nick Foles gets.  The Redskins will be putting points on the board as longs as RG3 doesn’t get too crazy and puts himself in a position to get hurt again. 

Pick: Eagles

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

The Bucs are on a roll. They have won 4 of their last 5 and now take on an inconsistent Panthers team.  If Martin gets involved early and Freeman keeps being efficient, rack up another win for this Tampa Bay team.

Pick: Buccaneers

Jaguars vs. Texans

My upset pick of the weak, is not this game.  The Texans really should destroy the Jags.  Now we saw the Jaguars keep up with the Packers so they aren’t that bad right?  I just don’t see it happening.

Pick: Texans

Saints vs. Raiders

The Raiders are an odd team and often times I never know what to expect from them.  They are inconsistent.  They manage to almost beat the then undefeated Falcons then barely squeak by the lowly Jaguars.  Now Palmer could very well just go off against this defense with big long plays from Moore and check downs to Meyers but can they really keep up with Brees?

Pick: Saints

Chargers vs. Broncos

The Broncos are looking scary.  I mean like one of the best teams in the AFC scary.  Manning is a MVP candidate to some and he only builds on his case after each game.  If this game were close, I wouldn’t be shocked.  I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Broncos lay into the Chargers.

Pick: Broncos

Colts vs. Patriots

Ok this really is my upset of the week.  I am drinking the Andrew Luck Kool-Aid.  This team looks alive and excited.  They aren’t out there struggling to not get their ass kicked behind Curtis Painter.  They are out there competing week in and week out.  Wayne has proved he isn’t that old yet and can still dominate opposing defenses.  They will have to score a lot of points I think to keep up with the Pats.  If however, Hernandez and Welker (who are both questionable) don’t play.  Lookout.

Pick: Colts

Ravens vs. Seelers

Both defenses are beat up.  The Steelers are without starting quarterback and main reason they are 6-3 this year, Big Ben.  The Ravens, well they have their offense in tact.  I believe Leftwich gets the start.  I just don’t see Byron carrying this team the way Roethlisberger does. 

Pick: Ravens

Bears vs. 49ers

In this one we have another starting quarterback out.  Now if they weren’t playing the 49ers defense I would say it wouldn’t matter.  The offense could be more Forte focused but against this rush defense?  No way.  The 49ers are going to have to get a little creative to score as well.  This could be a very close game regardless of who is at quarterback for the Bears but I’m going with the healthy offense.

Pick: 49ers

Week 4 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 4: 10-5  Overall: 36-27

Another 10 win week for me.  Let’s see if I can improve next week.  Here are my take aways from week 4.

Don’t be the ones playing pissed off powerhouses

After two straight losses and being down 21-7 sometime in the 3rd quarter the New England Patriots looked to be going down the wrong path to success.  Then something clicked and Brady lit up the Bills for a total of 52 points (31 in the 4th quarter!!).  Brady better watch out, if he continues to have that pissed focused look on his face it just might stay that way. 

The 49ers are the other power house who handed out an ass kicking.  After a tough lost to an apparently good Viking team, the 49ers defense was looking to hand out punishment.  What better way to do it than to face the no offense Jets.  Poor Sanchez just might get benched for a running ba...I mean Tim Tebow.  On a positive note, Rex Ryan has lost some weight guys!

I’ll never understand certain team’s consistency issues

Chicago can’t decide if they are an elite team in the NFC or if they are shackled by Jay Cutler and their offensive line.  One week they are getting destroyed by Green Bay then next they are dominating a Dallas team who on paper should be better than they were last year.  Maybe they will be more consistent going forward baring injury. 

Philadelphia is another team I don’t understand.  Weeks 1 and 2 they turn the ball over like crazy but still win.  Week 3 they pay for their turnovers.  Week 4 they beat a talented Giants team (less talented without Nicks on the field though).  The Eagles have gone from talks of starting U of A QB Nick Foles to now praising that Vick is back.  They don’t turn the ball over this week, which in prior weeks would have meant they would dominate opponents, yet instead they squeak by this week.  Dynasty anyone?

Another week of 3 undefeateds

There are three undefeated teams left still after week 4: Texans, Falcons, Cardinals.  The Texans are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They have the best running attack in the NFL by far and have a more than capable QB (as we saw in week 3).  They have a healthy Andre Johnson and a back up running back that will start in most leagues.  Oh yea their defense has been great also.

The Falcons continue to ride on the success of Matt Ryan (who I drafted in my fantasy league, based on reports of increased pass attempts).  Turner proved last week that he still can contribute when given the chance (regardless of any DUIs).  Roddy White is clearly still “the man” and Julio Jones will still put up great numbers from time to time.  Their defense has shown that it is capable of playing with a lead too, being ranked 8th in the league in pass defense.  This team is probably the second best team in the league behind the Texans in my opinion right now.

The Cardinals are the surprise team here.  I’ll admit, I’m an avid Cardinal fan, but I surely didn’t expect this.  Kolb stepped up when it mattered most and wont the Cardinals a week 4 contest they probably shouldn’t have.  Costly turnovers helped Arizona against an amazing performance from Tannehill and Hartline (who seemed to run only two routes all game: hitch/curl and hitch and go).  We’ll see if they can keep this up but the offense will need to greatly improve if they want to make a splash in this years playoffs.

Thursday night game:

Cardinals vs. Rams

The Rams surprised me last week against the Seahawks as they continue to pick off opposing QBs.  This week their task of AZ isn’t much tougher (offensively).  I see this game being quite low scoring.  If your Arizona however, Danny Amendola scares me.  Just look at what Brian Hartline did last week against your secondary, now you face another great route runner who focuses on short to mid range routes.  Much like most of each of these 2 teams victories thus far, this game will come down to turnovers.  Which ever team can force timely turnovers and increase their field position will win.  I’m going with the hot hand.

Pick: Cardinals

Week 3 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 3: 10-6  Overall: 26-22

Week 3 is another step in the right direction.  I’m not sure if there were just less upsets or I’m actually improving.  Things that stood out in week 3:

 There are no certainties in the NFL.

Simply looking at records who would have thought that so many teams that were successful last year would be not so much this year (yet).  The Patriots (1-2), Packers (1-2), Steelers (1-2), Lions (1-2), and the Saints (0-3) all post losing records.  The QBs don’t seem to be playing at as high as a level as one would expect (unless you are Big Ben or Matt Ryan).  I mean who would have though that through three weeks that Kevin Kolb, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder would all have higher QB ratings than Brees, Rodgers, and Brady.  Through the first two weeks the most prolific runners in the game were Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller.  Then they both get hurt in week 3.  These rankings are sure to change and the some of the regular super stars will climb back to superiority but for now, the NFL is refreshingly out of the ordinary. 

 If Kolb plays like he did in week 3 the Cards are scary.

Ok.  We get it.  The Cardinals defense is scary good.  Their secondary has been locking down receivers with their safeties clocking people all over the field.  I mean just ask Mike Vick (if he can even remember) how hard Kerry Rhodes hit him last week.  Not only that but their linebacking core is young and deep.  With a slender Dan Williams and the always impressive Docket and Campbell, the rush has been superb.  Although Beannie will be out for a significant amount of time with turf toe, almost rookie (missed all of last season) Ryan Williams looked explosive in 2 drives late in the game against the Eagles.  Fitz showed why he is still considered on of the best and undervalued Andre Roberts continues to contribute.  If Kolb plays like he did last week with 17/24, 222 yards with 2 TDs and no picks, the Cardinals might be a forced to be reckoned  with.  Quick fact: Kolb is 3rd in the league in QB rating through 3 weeks.

 The Green Bay, Seattle game forced the leagues hand, the Refs are back

I wont spend too much time on it.  It was an awful call on the field, awful job at reviewing the play and awful job of not taking ownership after the fact by Goodell. People were outraged and deservedly so.  Now we all get our wish and the old refs are back.  Finally a familiar face when we complain on sunday about how much the refereeing sucks.

Thursday night game:

Browns vs. Ravens

The Ravens are clearly a better team over all.  Weeden has looked ok at times and Richardson is a dynamic option out of the backfield.  The Browns also have one of the best corners in the league but he won’t be playing.  The Ravens will let Flacco fly in this one.  It could get ugly.

Pick: Ravens

A Rematch of the Greatest Super Bowl Ever

Are you ready?  It’s almost the time for the best unofficial holiday of the United States.  Dips are being concocted.  Posters are being drawn.  Parties are being assembled.  Pizza’s will be ordered.  Commercials will be critiqued.  With all of these other activities going on, how much of the game will you actually be watching?  Hopefully I don’t miss a second of it (outside Madonna’s halftime show maybe).  

The New York Giants

If you would have said that this team would be in the Super Bowl after loosing 4 in a row (weeks 10-13) many people would have said you were crazy.  This team most of the season could not run the ball or stop anyone on defense.  They were riddled with injuries everywhere but in the passing game (which was brilliant all season).  The one thing this team had going for them was Eli Manning.  The guy was getting MVP talks early in the year simply for his 4th quarter comebacks (NFL fan’s be glad Tebow didn’t get hat kind of recognition).  More than that but brother Eli even threw for way more yards than ever before, throwing for almost 5000 yards!  Most of this was due to the emergence of Victor Cruz.  Cruz often took patterns over the middle or little hitches, and turned them into huge TD scoring plays.  Cruz can thank Hakeem Nicks for taking double teams helping him to be able to be so open over the middle.  Nicks is a premier NFL receiver due his route running, his body size and his monstrous hands (he wears a 4x!), which all helps him just outmatch many corners.  This tandem has been one of this years best at WR. 

Since they caught fire and became healthy, the teams dynamics have changed a little.  Yes the Giants will still throw the ball up and down the field but they have been more successful at running it down your throat as of late.  Not only that but the front 4 of the defensive line has been able to create enough pass rush so that the coach doesn’t need to use exotic blitzes to create pressure.  The Giants aren’t the best team in the NFC this season, but they are the best team in the NFC right now.

The New England Patriots 

The team formally known as the dynasty is there yet again.  Lets face it, this Patriots team the past decade has been Belichick’s brain-child.  I mean they can even put Matt Cassel behind the helm and still have a winning record.  On top of that they are playing with a defense that, if on any other team, would get laughed out of the league.  This will be Brady’s 5th Super Bowl appearance, the only other guy to achieve such a feat: John Elway who went 2-3 in Super Bowl appearances.  Making a Super Bowl more than once is amazing, but 5 times?  Common Brady your making the rest of the NFL look bad.  

This team all year has been dominant (offensively at least).  The Patriots help the tight ends reclaim to fame this year, with the beyond outstanding performance of U of A’s Rob Gronkowski (now simply known as Gronk).  The Pats were going to be contenders this year regardless, but with the emergence of Gronk, their offensive if quite possibly the best in the league.  

There were reports that Gronkowski got off a plane in Indi wearing a boot.  This freaked everyone out so during press day he did not have the boot as part of his attire.  Rob has a high ankle sprain which normally, keeps guys off the field for more than the 2 weeks he’s been off.  Gronks presence in the redzone has what has helped the Pats punch it in this year (he has 14 redzone TDs).  It will be interesting to see how his injury pans out, since I believe Gronkowski’s impact will heavily effect the outcome of the game.  

The Match-Up

The rematch!  Who can forget Super Bowl XLII, played here in Arizona?  Brady and the Patriots were going for history as the first team to win 19 games in a season and be the second team to go undefeated.  The Giants just happened to be who they were playing.  They were 10-6 and much like this season, in order to even make the playoffs they had to catch fire.  I’m sure many of you remember the game.  More specifically, I’m sure many of you can give a detailed story of Manning breaking away from a sack to throw the deep pass to David Tyree who made one of the best catches is Super Bowl history.  Needless to say the Giants upset the Patriots and Eli was thrust into an elite quarterback group; a Super Bowl winning QB.  This game was probably one of the most exciting games I have ever seen, on the biggest stage.  It is a modern day, football version of David and Goliath.  

Fast forward four years and we’ve run into a rematch.  To be honest I would love to see a close game but to ask for a repeat of the amount of excitement 2008 had would be asking too much.  Although I might have preferred different teams to match up in this years Super Bowl, my eyes will still be glued to the TV.  

I think the key for the Patriots will revolve around their effectiveness in the redzone.  Gronkowski won’t be 100% although I believe he will make an attempt to play.  This puts a heavy burden on Belichick to create a scheme that is different than the one they have been running all year.  As dead pan as his personality is, Belichick is an intelligent coach and will most likely figure something out.  If however the Patriots settle for field goals on drives, they may lose another Super Bowl to the Giants.  

As for the Giants, I think two things are crucial: can they create an effective pass rush with only four down linemen and can one of their premier receivers make the big play, scoring a long TD.  The Giants this season have lived off of Cruz breaking tackles and scattering off into the endzone,  or Nicks catching vertical routes or even hail mary’s like against the Packers.  If the Patriots can tackle well and limit the big plays, the Giants might struggle to keep up with New England.  

To be honest I’ve never liked the New England Patriots and will be rooting for the Giants this year.  But thats just me, who are you guys rooting for?  

Anyways, that’s sports: from the fans perspective.