Weel 6 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 6: 4-10 Overall: 50-41

Last week was full of upsets, meaning I didn’t do so hot.  In fact, I tend not to pick so many upsets which hasn’t boded so well for my overall record.  That will be the theme this week; upsets and what they mean for the league.  Takeaways:

Records are only kind of important

There are 2 teams in the entire AFC with winning records: Baltimore and Houston.  That is 1 less than the amount of teams in the NFC West with winning records.  The only undefeated team left is Atlanta and they have been scraping wins the past few weeks.  San Francisco, who many thought was the best team in football hasn’t looked like it the past few weeks.  Then you look at Vegas and they rank the 3-3 New England Patriots as the best team in football.  It is very early in the season and records are only good enough to get you into the playoffs.  After the playoffs start everyone is 0-0.

Nobody knows who the best team in football is.

This kind of goes into the topic above.  The team with the best record is struggling the past few weeks.  The Texans lost Cushing and have an awful yards per rushing attempt.  The Ravens defense is allowing rushing yards like nobodies business which doesn’t help their offense look any better.  The Patriots look good on the field but manage to pull out a 3-3 record.  The Giants might be the best team in football but they seem to take weeks off.  The Packers look off all season until last week when they put up 42 against the Texans.  The Broncos also at 3-3 only seem to improve every week.  I have no idea what’s going on in the NFL, and I love it that way.  Any given Sunday right?

Michael Vick is not the right fit for the Eagles

Maybe it is the system they run under Reid or maybe it is the fact that Vick can’t hold onto the football.  Either way Vick’s turnovers are costing the Eagles W’s.  When playing behind, the play calls are pass heavy.  This puts the ball in the hands of a QB who is small and fumble prone.  When you have one of the best backs in football, why not give him the ball?  By the way, firing your defensive coordinator will not solve you problems.

Seahawks vs. the 49ers

The Seahawks have proven they can hang with anybody and if you can hang with a team, there is a chance you can beat them as well.  Both of these teams are in a 3 way tie for first place in the West, and have relied heavily on their defense (although for a 2 week span the ‘9ers were putting up points like it was Montana/Rice again).  This will be a low scoring affair and I believe it will be close, since these teams match up very similarly.  I give the nod to the more experienced team however.

Winner: 49ers

Week 4 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 4: 10-5  Overall: 36-27

Another 10 win week for me.  Let’s see if I can improve next week.  Here are my take aways from week 4.

Don’t be the ones playing pissed off powerhouses

After two straight losses and being down 21-7 sometime in the 3rd quarter the New England Patriots looked to be going down the wrong path to success.  Then something clicked and Brady lit up the Bills for a total of 52 points (31 in the 4th quarter!!).  Brady better watch out, if he continues to have that pissed focused look on his face it just might stay that way. 

The 49ers are the other power house who handed out an ass kicking.  After a tough lost to an apparently good Viking team, the 49ers defense was looking to hand out punishment.  What better way to do it than to face the no offense Jets.  Poor Sanchez just might get benched for a running ba...I mean Tim Tebow.  On a positive note, Rex Ryan has lost some weight guys!

I’ll never understand certain team’s consistency issues

Chicago can’t decide if they are an elite team in the NFC or if they are shackled by Jay Cutler and their offensive line.  One week they are getting destroyed by Green Bay then next they are dominating a Dallas team who on paper should be better than they were last year.  Maybe they will be more consistent going forward baring injury. 

Philadelphia is another team I don’t understand.  Weeks 1 and 2 they turn the ball over like crazy but still win.  Week 3 they pay for their turnovers.  Week 4 they beat a talented Giants team (less talented without Nicks on the field though).  The Eagles have gone from talks of starting U of A QB Nick Foles to now praising that Vick is back.  They don’t turn the ball over this week, which in prior weeks would have meant they would dominate opponents, yet instead they squeak by this week.  Dynasty anyone?

Another week of 3 undefeateds

There are three undefeated teams left still after week 4: Texans, Falcons, Cardinals.  The Texans are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They have the best running attack in the NFL by far and have a more than capable QB (as we saw in week 3).  They have a healthy Andre Johnson and a back up running back that will start in most leagues.  Oh yea their defense has been great also.

The Falcons continue to ride on the success of Matt Ryan (who I drafted in my fantasy league, based on reports of increased pass attempts).  Turner proved last week that he still can contribute when given the chance (regardless of any DUIs).  Roddy White is clearly still “the man” and Julio Jones will still put up great numbers from time to time.  Their defense has shown that it is capable of playing with a lead too, being ranked 8th in the league in pass defense.  This team is probably the second best team in the league behind the Texans in my opinion right now.

The Cardinals are the surprise team here.  I’ll admit, I’m an avid Cardinal fan, but I surely didn’t expect this.  Kolb stepped up when it mattered most and wont the Cardinals a week 4 contest they probably shouldn’t have.  Costly turnovers helped Arizona against an amazing performance from Tannehill and Hartline (who seemed to run only two routes all game: hitch/curl and hitch and go).  We’ll see if they can keep this up but the offense will need to greatly improve if they want to make a splash in this years playoffs.

Thursday night game:

Cardinals vs. Rams

The Rams surprised me last week against the Seahawks as they continue to pick off opposing QBs.  This week their task of AZ isn’t much tougher (offensively).  I see this game being quite low scoring.  If your Arizona however, Danny Amendola scares me.  Just look at what Brian Hartline did last week against your secondary, now you face another great route runner who focuses on short to mid range routes.  Much like most of each of these 2 teams victories thus far, this game will come down to turnovers.  Which ever team can force timely turnovers and increase their field position will win.  I’m going with the hot hand.

Pick: Cardinals

Week 4 Picks

Week 3: 10-6  Overall: 27-22

Thanks to the best quarterback in the league’s (in his opinion) 356 passing yards out of 46 passing attempts the Ravens handled the lowly Browns last Thursday.  Now for the rest of the week:

Patriots vs. Bills

The Bills are 2-1 very much with the help of their running game.  It has eased some of the pressure off of Fitzpatrick allowing him to not be forced to force the ball.  Spiller is questionable to start but it seems Jackson will get back on the field sooner than initially expecting.  I still think Brady and Bilichick are angry and plan on rolling over the divisional rival Bills.

Pick: Patriots

49ers vs. Jets

The 49ers were stunned last week against the Vikings.  This week they face a struggling Jets team with inconsistency on offense and no Revis on defense.  I look for the Niners to bounce back to their dominating form.

Pick: 49ers

Seahawks vs. Rams

The Seahawks have proven to me so far that season that they have a good defense, a quality running game and the refs who shall not be named anymore, absolutely favored them in 2 out of their 3 games.  They won’t need it in this one.  Seattle’s athletic corners should be able to handle their only receiving threat, Amendola. 

Pick: Seahawks

Panthers vs. Falcons

Cam Newton is struggling so far this season.  And after seeing what the Atlanta pass defense did to Rivers once they had a lead does not bode well for Newton.  I have a hard time believing you can stop this Falcons offense right now and if anyone is, it is unlikely that Carolina will be that team.

Pick: Falcons

Vikings vs. Lions

After a hot start last year the Lions open the gates 1-2.  Stafford hasn’t been quite himself and is now battling another injury.  Leshore’s emergance as a running threat along with the best receiver in football gives them a chance every week to put up numbers.  They haven’t been able to stop very many people though.  Ponder has looked great so far this season but did so against 2 poor defenses and what was that other one?  Oh right the 49ers.  Last week Ponder only threw for 198 yards but has yet to through a pick this year and threw two redzone TDs.  If it’s a shooting match I see the Lions winning, if its low scoring the Vikings should win. 

Pick: Lions

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Chargers had a horrible lost last week as the Chiefs finally got a win with the help of Jamaal Charles (he’s back!).  Rivers and Turner will be happy they are facing a Cheifs defense that ranks 28th in points allowed this season.  If the Cheifs get out to t a slow start again and have to abandon the run, it could be bad news for them.  If they stick to the running game (although I don’t see Charles getting 30+ carries again), they will be in better shape.

Pick: Chargers

Texans vs. Titans

Although Locker had a big game last week, they still have yet to get productivity out of their star running back Chris Johnson and this week they face the Texans.  Houston is the most balanced team in football (and possibly the best).  Look for Foster and the gang to keep rolling.

Pick: Texans

Bengals vs. Jaguars

MJD is still a monster out of the backfield.  Outside of that though, the Jags aren’t impressive at all.  Dalton, however continues to impress me as he takes more control of the offense.  Also A.J. Green week in and week out is proving he is one of the top receivers in the league.

Pick: Bengals

Raiders vs. Broncos

You have Peyton Manning now what?  Well starting 1-2 probably isn’t what they expected, yet it isn’t all that surprising  to people who aren’t Denver fans. The Raiders had a big win over the Steelers last week and look to keep the ball rolling.  Maybe that Carson Palmer deal could work out in the end.  Like last year this division will be very much up for grabs.  Even though Heyward Bey’s absence hurts, leaning on McFadden will help.

Pick: Raiders

Dolphins vs. Cardinals

Everyone is picking the Cardinals.  Their defense destroyed Vick last week so if your Ryan Tannehill you must be having a rough time getting some sleep this week.  The Dolphins are good at the running game (both offensively and defensively) and the Eagles when they ran the ball last week (which wasn’t much) did so well against AZ.  Gotta stay with the hot hand and Ray Horton’s defense though.

Pick: Cardinals

Redskins vs. Buccaneers

RG3 although exciting is having trouble winning games (sound familiar Carolina fans?).  The Bucs look inconsistent at times as well.  This week I look for all those fancy stats for RG3 to amount to a win. 

Pick: Redskins

Saints vs. Packers

I wouldn’t have believed it if you told me these two teams combined record would be 1-5.  Sadly for the Saints the play on the road again.  In a possible high scoring affair, I just think the Packers are an all around better team.

Pick: Packers

Giants vs. Eagles

Last week Arizona showed everyone Philly’s true colors.  They can’t hold on to the football and don’t run the ball as much as they should.  The Giants continue to look like a dominant football team and much of this is without the help of Hakeem Nicks who is doubtful to play again.  They have so many options though that they should be fine.

Pick: Giants

Bears vs. Cowboys

Both teams got victories last week off of lack luster performances.  The Cutler to Marshal combination hasn’t been seen since week one and they face a tough Dallas secondary who could shut them down much like Green Bay did.  The Cowboys are having trouble finding an offensive rhythm as Jason Witten continues to be a non-factor.  I strongly believe that once Forte is truly back to full health, this Chicago team will begin to roll.  This week I don’t think is the week for that however. 

Pick: Cowboys

Week 2 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 2: 7-9    Overall: 16-16

Ok so this week I took a step in the wrong direction.  There were upsets and just poor decisions by me.  Here are the 3 things I took a away from week 2:

1. The NFC West isn’t as bad as people think. 
    The Rams on the back of Bradford and Danny Amendola’s double digit catches before the half, helped the Rams overcome the streaking RG3 powered Redskins.  The Seahawks handled the Cowboys with with ease.  The 49ers continued to show their dominance as probably the best team in NFC by making the Lions look like a watered down version of its offense a year ago.  The most shocking of last week was the Cardinals upsetting the Patriots.  Brady only looked like Brady on one drive of the game (which they scored a TD).  The offense did just enough to get points on the board with the assist of a slightly better performance from their running game.  Also the defense is proving they are a top tier defense of the league behind veterans Wilson, Docket, Campbell and emerging star Washington.

 2. Bounty Gate will end up costing the Saints.
    The offense hasn’t been on point like usual.  The rhythm isn’t there and maybe Sean Payton ran the show more than Drew Brees would want you to believe.  The truth is they are scoring enough to win but the defense can’t stop anyone (especially athletic quarterbacks apparently).  Teams don’t typically make the playoffs after starting 0-2 and the Falcons look to take the NFC by storm this year so look out.

 3. Although the replacement referees are terrible, it won’t effect ratings.
    Lets face it the replacement referees aren’t very good.  They often appear afraid to make calls and are indecisive.  Then once they make a bad call, and review it, they still get it wrong.  We all miss the old refs but....it won’t keep me from watching the NFL.  I’ll complain about the refs but I won’t stop watching football just to get them back.  In the grand scheme they don’t “cost” people games, although they might very soon.  I hope the strike is resolved but I won’t be losing sleep over it as a NFL fan.

Giants Vs. Panthers

The Giants showed they can just throw their way to victory.  Eli Manning who threw for (510 yards, 378 of which were to Cruz and Nicks) made it clear that they can be last in the league in rushing again and still win it all.  This week however they are short Nicks and Bradshaw.  I still see Eli putting up yards, getting in the endzone might be a little tougher.  The Giants defense will be matched up against the athletic specimen of Cam Newton.  They may be able to slow him down some with their quick D-Line but he’ll be hard to stop completely.  I see this to be a relatively close matchup but the Giants experience will help them prevail. 

Pick: Giants