Week 7 Review and Thursday Pick

Week 7: 13-1  Overall: 63-42

So that might be the best week I’m going to have with picks.  Not to toot my own horn but only one loss isn’t too bad.  I definitely needed a boost in my overall record though.  Anyways here’s my take a-ways:

It takes a balanced team to win a game: offense, defense and special teams

Offense: The Cardinals last week held ponder to 58 passing yards...58.  The Cards defense also caused 2 turnovers.  Although Peterson ran all over them, they still had over 10 minutes more in time of possession. Just looking at that you would think, blow out.  Nope they lost pretty handily to the Vikings last week.  Failed conversions, turnovers and missed redzone opportunities killed them.  Doesn’t matter if you have the best defense in the league, you need some offensive production.

Defense: The Redskins with RG3 behind the center can score.  They are electric, fast and can run all over you with the help of Morris.  They put up 23 on the reigning Super Bowl champs including a late TD to seemingly give them the win.  With only 1:32 left in the fourth it was all but won right?  Right?  One play from Eli to Cruz and its over (basically).  Oh but he probably broke like 5 tackles or made some amazing juke move right?  Nope a blown coverage.   You let the fastest guy on the Giants offense loose in the middle of the field on a go route.  This has been the Skins all year, can’t stop anyone through the air.  BTW don’t tell the Saints you need a defense.  Brees will just try to out throw you.

Special Teams:  Let’s face it, we weren’t expecting a shoot out between Oakland and Jacksonville. Instead we got a field goal match (although yes there were 4 total TDs).  This is just an example of capitalizing on possible points.  Any of those field goals missed and there would have been no overtime.  Just like a kick off or a punt, you can never fall asleep on special teams.

Buccaneers vs. Vikings

Like I mentioned before the Vikings only threw for 58 yards and still won the football game.  They must have been really good at everything that game.  Which they were.  The Bucs lost a heart breaker against the Saints, in spite of Freeman’s and Jackson’s huge performance.  He only has thrown for over 300 yards 3 times in his career.  In case you were curious Freeman has thrown for over 300 yards in two straight weeks.  That streak will continue this week against the Vikes.

Pick: Bucs

Week 4 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 4: 10-5  Overall: 36-27

Another 10 win week for me.  Let’s see if I can improve next week.  Here are my take aways from week 4.

Don’t be the ones playing pissed off powerhouses

After two straight losses and being down 21-7 sometime in the 3rd quarter the New England Patriots looked to be going down the wrong path to success.  Then something clicked and Brady lit up the Bills for a total of 52 points (31 in the 4th quarter!!).  Brady better watch out, if he continues to have that pissed focused look on his face it just might stay that way. 

The 49ers are the other power house who handed out an ass kicking.  After a tough lost to an apparently good Viking team, the 49ers defense was looking to hand out punishment.  What better way to do it than to face the no offense Jets.  Poor Sanchez just might get benched for a running ba...I mean Tim Tebow.  On a positive note, Rex Ryan has lost some weight guys!

I’ll never understand certain team’s consistency issues

Chicago can’t decide if they are an elite team in the NFC or if they are shackled by Jay Cutler and their offensive line.  One week they are getting destroyed by Green Bay then next they are dominating a Dallas team who on paper should be better than they were last year.  Maybe they will be more consistent going forward baring injury. 

Philadelphia is another team I don’t understand.  Weeks 1 and 2 they turn the ball over like crazy but still win.  Week 3 they pay for their turnovers.  Week 4 they beat a talented Giants team (less talented without Nicks on the field though).  The Eagles have gone from talks of starting U of A QB Nick Foles to now praising that Vick is back.  They don’t turn the ball over this week, which in prior weeks would have meant they would dominate opponents, yet instead they squeak by this week.  Dynasty anyone?

Another week of 3 undefeateds

There are three undefeated teams left still after week 4: Texans, Falcons, Cardinals.  The Texans are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They have the best running attack in the NFL by far and have a more than capable QB (as we saw in week 3).  They have a healthy Andre Johnson and a back up running back that will start in most leagues.  Oh yea their defense has been great also.

The Falcons continue to ride on the success of Matt Ryan (who I drafted in my fantasy league, based on reports of increased pass attempts).  Turner proved last week that he still can contribute when given the chance (regardless of any DUIs).  Roddy White is clearly still “the man” and Julio Jones will still put up great numbers from time to time.  Their defense has shown that it is capable of playing with a lead too, being ranked 8th in the league in pass defense.  This team is probably the second best team in the league behind the Texans in my opinion right now.

The Cardinals are the surprise team here.  I’ll admit, I’m an avid Cardinal fan, but I surely didn’t expect this.  Kolb stepped up when it mattered most and wont the Cardinals a week 4 contest they probably shouldn’t have.  Costly turnovers helped Arizona against an amazing performance from Tannehill and Hartline (who seemed to run only two routes all game: hitch/curl and hitch and go).  We’ll see if they can keep this up but the offense will need to greatly improve if they want to make a splash in this years playoffs.

Thursday night game:

Cardinals vs. Rams

The Rams surprised me last week against the Seahawks as they continue to pick off opposing QBs.  This week their task of AZ isn’t much tougher (offensively).  I see this game being quite low scoring.  If your Arizona however, Danny Amendola scares me.  Just look at what Brian Hartline did last week against your secondary, now you face another great route runner who focuses on short to mid range routes.  Much like most of each of these 2 teams victories thus far, this game will come down to turnovers.  Which ever team can force timely turnovers and increase their field position will win.  I’m going with the hot hand.

Pick: Cardinals

Week 4 Picks

Week 3: 10-6  Overall: 27-22

Thanks to the best quarterback in the league’s (in his opinion) 356 passing yards out of 46 passing attempts the Ravens handled the lowly Browns last Thursday.  Now for the rest of the week:

Patriots vs. Bills

The Bills are 2-1 very much with the help of their running game.  It has eased some of the pressure off of Fitzpatrick allowing him to not be forced to force the ball.  Spiller is questionable to start but it seems Jackson will get back on the field sooner than initially expecting.  I still think Brady and Bilichick are angry and plan on rolling over the divisional rival Bills.

Pick: Patriots

49ers vs. Jets

The 49ers were stunned last week against the Vikings.  This week they face a struggling Jets team with inconsistency on offense and no Revis on defense.  I look for the Niners to bounce back to their dominating form.

Pick: 49ers

Seahawks vs. Rams

The Seahawks have proven to me so far that season that they have a good defense, a quality running game and the refs who shall not be named anymore, absolutely favored them in 2 out of their 3 games.  They won’t need it in this one.  Seattle’s athletic corners should be able to handle their only receiving threat, Amendola. 

Pick: Seahawks

Panthers vs. Falcons

Cam Newton is struggling so far this season.  And after seeing what the Atlanta pass defense did to Rivers once they had a lead does not bode well for Newton.  I have a hard time believing you can stop this Falcons offense right now and if anyone is, it is unlikely that Carolina will be that team.

Pick: Falcons

Vikings vs. Lions

After a hot start last year the Lions open the gates 1-2.  Stafford hasn’t been quite himself and is now battling another injury.  Leshore’s emergance as a running threat along with the best receiver in football gives them a chance every week to put up numbers.  They haven’t been able to stop very many people though.  Ponder has looked great so far this season but did so against 2 poor defenses and what was that other one?  Oh right the 49ers.  Last week Ponder only threw for 198 yards but has yet to through a pick this year and threw two redzone TDs.  If it’s a shooting match I see the Lions winning, if its low scoring the Vikings should win. 

Pick: Lions

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Chargers had a horrible lost last week as the Chiefs finally got a win with the help of Jamaal Charles (he’s back!).  Rivers and Turner will be happy they are facing a Cheifs defense that ranks 28th in points allowed this season.  If the Cheifs get out to t a slow start again and have to abandon the run, it could be bad news for them.  If they stick to the running game (although I don’t see Charles getting 30+ carries again), they will be in better shape.

Pick: Chargers

Texans vs. Titans

Although Locker had a big game last week, they still have yet to get productivity out of their star running back Chris Johnson and this week they face the Texans.  Houston is the most balanced team in football (and possibly the best).  Look for Foster and the gang to keep rolling.

Pick: Texans

Bengals vs. Jaguars

MJD is still a monster out of the backfield.  Outside of that though, the Jags aren’t impressive at all.  Dalton, however continues to impress me as he takes more control of the offense.  Also A.J. Green week in and week out is proving he is one of the top receivers in the league.

Pick: Bengals

Raiders vs. Broncos

You have Peyton Manning now what?  Well starting 1-2 probably isn’t what they expected, yet it isn’t all that surprising  to people who aren’t Denver fans. The Raiders had a big win over the Steelers last week and look to keep the ball rolling.  Maybe that Carson Palmer deal could work out in the end.  Like last year this division will be very much up for grabs.  Even though Heyward Bey’s absence hurts, leaning on McFadden will help.

Pick: Raiders

Dolphins vs. Cardinals

Everyone is picking the Cardinals.  Their defense destroyed Vick last week so if your Ryan Tannehill you must be having a rough time getting some sleep this week.  The Dolphins are good at the running game (both offensively and defensively) and the Eagles when they ran the ball last week (which wasn’t much) did so well against AZ.  Gotta stay with the hot hand and Ray Horton’s defense though.

Pick: Cardinals

Redskins vs. Buccaneers

RG3 although exciting is having trouble winning games (sound familiar Carolina fans?).  The Bucs look inconsistent at times as well.  This week I look for all those fancy stats for RG3 to amount to a win. 

Pick: Redskins

Saints vs. Packers

I wouldn’t have believed it if you told me these two teams combined record would be 1-5.  Sadly for the Saints the play on the road again.  In a possible high scoring affair, I just think the Packers are an all around better team.

Pick: Packers

Giants vs. Eagles

Last week Arizona showed everyone Philly’s true colors.  They can’t hold on to the football and don’t run the ball as much as they should.  The Giants continue to look like a dominant football team and much of this is without the help of Hakeem Nicks who is doubtful to play again.  They have so many options though that they should be fine.

Pick: Giants

Bears vs. Cowboys

Both teams got victories last week off of lack luster performances.  The Cutler to Marshal combination hasn’t been seen since week one and they face a tough Dallas secondary who could shut them down much like Green Bay did.  The Cowboys are having trouble finding an offensive rhythm as Jason Witten continues to be a non-factor.  I strongly believe that once Forte is truly back to full health, this Chicago team will begin to roll.  This week I don’t think is the week for that however. 

Pick: Cowboys

Week 3 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 3: 10-6  Overall: 26-22

Week 3 is another step in the right direction.  I’m not sure if there were just less upsets or I’m actually improving.  Things that stood out in week 3:

 There are no certainties in the NFL.

Simply looking at records who would have thought that so many teams that were successful last year would be not so much this year (yet).  The Patriots (1-2), Packers (1-2), Steelers (1-2), Lions (1-2), and the Saints (0-3) all post losing records.  The QBs don’t seem to be playing at as high as a level as one would expect (unless you are Big Ben or Matt Ryan).  I mean who would have though that through three weeks that Kevin Kolb, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder would all have higher QB ratings than Brees, Rodgers, and Brady.  Through the first two weeks the most prolific runners in the game were Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller.  Then they both get hurt in week 3.  These rankings are sure to change and the some of the regular super stars will climb back to superiority but for now, the NFL is refreshingly out of the ordinary. 

 If Kolb plays like he did in week 3 the Cards are scary.

Ok.  We get it.  The Cardinals defense is scary good.  Their secondary has been locking down receivers with their safeties clocking people all over the field.  I mean just ask Mike Vick (if he can even remember) how hard Kerry Rhodes hit him last week.  Not only that but their linebacking core is young and deep.  With a slender Dan Williams and the always impressive Docket and Campbell, the rush has been superb.  Although Beannie will be out for a significant amount of time with turf toe, almost rookie (missed all of last season) Ryan Williams looked explosive in 2 drives late in the game against the Eagles.  Fitz showed why he is still considered on of the best and undervalued Andre Roberts continues to contribute.  If Kolb plays like he did last week with 17/24, 222 yards with 2 TDs and no picks, the Cardinals might be a forced to be reckoned  with.  Quick fact: Kolb is 3rd in the league in QB rating through 3 weeks.

 The Green Bay, Seattle game forced the leagues hand, the Refs are back

I wont spend too much time on it.  It was an awful call on the field, awful job at reviewing the play and awful job of not taking ownership after the fact by Goodell. People were outraged and deservedly so.  Now we all get our wish and the old refs are back.  Finally a familiar face when we complain on sunday about how much the refereeing sucks.

Thursday night game:

Browns vs. Ravens

The Ravens are clearly a better team over all.  Weeden has looked ok at times and Richardson is a dynamic option out of the backfield.  The Browns also have one of the best corners in the league but he won’t be playing.  The Ravens will let Flacco fly in this one.  It could get ugly.

Pick: Ravens

Week 2 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 2: 7-9    Overall: 16-16

Ok so this week I took a step in the wrong direction.  There were upsets and just poor decisions by me.  Here are the 3 things I took a away from week 2:

1. The NFC West isn’t as bad as people think. 
    The Rams on the back of Bradford and Danny Amendola’s double digit catches before the half, helped the Rams overcome the streaking RG3 powered Redskins.  The Seahawks handled the Cowboys with with ease.  The 49ers continued to show their dominance as probably the best team in NFC by making the Lions look like a watered down version of its offense a year ago.  The most shocking of last week was the Cardinals upsetting the Patriots.  Brady only looked like Brady on one drive of the game (which they scored a TD).  The offense did just enough to get points on the board with the assist of a slightly better performance from their running game.  Also the defense is proving they are a top tier defense of the league behind veterans Wilson, Docket, Campbell and emerging star Washington.

 2. Bounty Gate will end up costing the Saints.
    The offense hasn’t been on point like usual.  The rhythm isn’t there and maybe Sean Payton ran the show more than Drew Brees would want you to believe.  The truth is they are scoring enough to win but the defense can’t stop anyone (especially athletic quarterbacks apparently).  Teams don’t typically make the playoffs after starting 0-2 and the Falcons look to take the NFC by storm this year so look out.

 3. Although the replacement referees are terrible, it won’t effect ratings.
    Lets face it the replacement referees aren’t very good.  They often appear afraid to make calls and are indecisive.  Then once they make a bad call, and review it, they still get it wrong.  We all miss the old refs but....it won’t keep me from watching the NFL.  I’ll complain about the refs but I won’t stop watching football just to get them back.  In the grand scheme they don’t “cost” people games, although they might very soon.  I hope the strike is resolved but I won’t be losing sleep over it as a NFL fan.

Giants Vs. Panthers

The Giants showed they can just throw their way to victory.  Eli Manning who threw for (510 yards, 378 of which were to Cruz and Nicks) made it clear that they can be last in the league in rushing again and still win it all.  This week however they are short Nicks and Bradshaw.  I still see Eli putting up yards, getting in the endzone might be a little tougher.  The Giants defense will be matched up against the athletic specimen of Cam Newton.  They may be able to slow him down some with their quick D-Line but he’ll be hard to stop completely.  I see this to be a relatively close matchup but the Giants experience will help them prevail. 

Pick: Giants