Fantasy Football for Dummies - 5 Tips

You love football.  So much so that your friends bug you about joining their fantasy league.  Maybe you did join but seem to be at the bottom of the  totem pole every year.  Well I am here to try to help.  Now these are just tips that work for me but hopefully they will work for you too.  Keep in mind sometimes you get lucky (or unlucky) in fantasy football.  So here we go, top 5 tips to help win your fantasy football league!

1)  Start with a top running back

You might be like a lot of people in my league, from Arizona so naturally you will want to pick Larry Fitzgerald in the first round right?  Nope!  You will want to most certainly go with a elite running back first if at all possible.  You say, “but this is a passing league so a quarterback should go first right?” 

Who here likes economics?  Think of it like supply and demand: There are a high number of quarterbacks in this league who put up really good numbers. Since this is a passing league, there are a large number of receivers who put up good numbers too.  There are however, a smaller number of quality running backs.  In fact, the difference between an elite back and average back is much higher than the difference between elite and average QBs or WRs.

Position	Player	2012 Fantasy Points*	Ranking by Position	Difference from Leader
RB	Adrian Peterson	307.4	1
RB	Frank Gore	202.6	10	104.8
RB	Shonn Greene	167.4	15	140
QB	Drew Brees	335.58	1
QB	Russell Wilson	275.62	10	59.96
QB	Eli Manning	232.92	15	102.66
WR	Calvin Johnson	220.4	1
WR	Roddy White	177.1	10	43.3
WR	Reggie Wayne	163	15	57.4

*Stats from Fantasy.NFL.com

2)  Do your homework

This is probably the step most people will skip.  If you want to be good at fantasy football you MUST research.  You must see which players are expected to get higher roles in their offense.  You must check up on injuries or competition at their position.  Check rankings and read articles.  This will help immensely in your drafting strategy as well as your waiver wire pick up. 

Checking waiver wires and free agency is something you should be doing very frequently.  One persons trash could be your treasure.  Look at Victor Cruz a few years ago.  No one knew who he was, now he’s due a huge contract and is a top WR.

This also applies to knowing the scoring system of your league.  Is it PPR?  Do QBs get penalized for sacks and INTs?  What about running backs for fumbles?  Do RB/WR/TE receive different points per reception?  This will help you target certain players over others based on their unique abilities and their team situation.

3)  Who gets targeted the most

It is pretty simple.  When receivers (and other players) get a high number of targets, they have a higher chance of putting up fantasy points.  This does not always mean high targets = lots of points.  Sometimes a quarterbacks performance or the teams opponent will negatively effect fantasy output in-spite of high targets.

Player	Fantasy Ranking by Points	Targets
Calvin Johnson	1	205
Reggie Wayne	15	194
Brandon Marshall	2	194
Wes Welker	12	174
Andre Johnson	8	164
AJ Green	4	164

As you can see many of the top targeted receivers also had the best fantasy output.  Also many highly targeted WR did not put up elite numbers.  This ties back into doing your homework.  Is the WR the #1 target on their team?  Do they receive a lot of double coverage?  Was their fantasy output last year due to a high number of receptions/yards or a high amount of TDs?  A high amount of looks plus their situation should effect your ranking.

4)  Whatever you do, Kickers and Defenses are picked last

Please do this.  I cannot tell you how many times I’ve played in a league where kickers and defenses are picked early.  Last year in one of my drafts I picked Reggie Wayne after some people had their kickers and defenses picked.  This goes back to economics and difference.  A top kicker and defenses points will not be all that different from an average one.

5)  Take chances in late rounds

Your late rounds are to help your bench.  Guys to fill in bye weeks or incase of injury.  That should not be the mentality of your late round picks.  Late round picks are the ones you take chances on.  Is their a guy who has talent up the wazoo but has character issues?  What about a guy who is coming of a big injury but has put up numbers before?  Is there a player who is in a new system who hasn’t gotten the chance to shine before?  The late rounds is where you make a championship team.  You hope that in a late round you find a guy who everyone else missed, who will not be a bench player only to see PT during bye weeks, but a guy who outshines your original starting lineup.  Do not take late rounds lightly, they are very important.

Conclusion:

Hopefully that helps all of you out in your leagues.  Again, this is what I have found to help me win in my leagues.  It will not always work even if you do everything right.  Some guys will have “off” years.  Many times you will fight injury bugs (I cannot tell you how many potentially good teams I have had ruined due to multiple nagging injuries).  Keep your head up and do your best!  And remember, this is supposed to be fun!

Suns Add Hope in the Form of GM Ryan McDonough

As of Tuesday the Phoenix Suns have hope once again.  This time it’s in the form of new GM Ryan McDonough.  McDonough at the young age of 33, has spent the past decade with the Boston Celtics.  On ESPN 620 with Burns and Gambo, he told his story.  McDonough started from the ground up in Boston, by creating his own entry level position - editing scouting videos.  Eventually since he looked at so much film on players, his oppinion was asked from time to time.  Through his hard work and determination, McDonough would work his way up the ranks to become the Celtics Assistant GM.

McDonough is highly touted for his scouting ability.  When respected GM Danny Ainge says that “he’s played a huge part in our success” and that McDonough is like a son to him, that’s a good sign.  He lobbied for the Celtics to draft players like Rajon Rando and Bradley Avery.  Being as the Suns could have as many as 9 draft picks within the next two years, scouting talent will be key. 

Whether it is a lottery pick or the last pick in the first round, McDonough will have to make it count.  On the air he openly admitted it will be a long process.  Even Sarver admitted on ESPN 620 that they will be in a rebuilding process, and although he has trouble waiting for success, he must be patient. 

Winning in the NBA revolves around finding “the guy”, the stud of your team that everyone covets, and then placing enough talent around him to succeed.  The Thunder found Kevin Durrant and drafted well around him.  The Heat signed their “guy” and signed others for support.  Based on what we know about McDonough, it seems like the drafting route is in store for us.  The question is, will we be lucky enough to find our “guy”?

The number one priority for the new GM is finding a coach, which is already in the works.  It has been said Lindsey Hunter is a candidate but popular belief is his consideration is more of a formality.  McDonough will most likely want to put his stamp on the team, which means a fresh face. 

Speaking of fresh faces, we may see a lot of new ones in a Suns uniform next year.  Since we now seem to be committed to rebuilding, players like Luis Scola or Martin Gortat may find their way on another team.  Not because they are poor players but because they do not fit along with the “youth movement”. 

After being investigated for sexual assault, Michael Beasley may finally find his way off of the Suns roster as well.  A vastly under performing Beasley has been one of the main targets for Sun’s fans woes.  This may be just the excuse needed to finally cut ties.  When asked about Beasley on the air, both Sarver and McDonough responded with “no comment” (Sarver even repeated it about 4 times). 

Suns fans will have a lot to look forward to in the coming months.  New GM, new HC, and a mostly new roster.  Personally I am most interested to see the directed McDonough decides to do in the draft.  It has been said he rates players based on their averages, not highs or lows, simply because you want to know what kind of output you can rely on every night out of a guy.  Below are a few of my favorites.

Victor Oladipo SG - High motor, great athleticism.  Has ability to be a slashing scorer but may lack ability to score in isolation situations.  Great lockdown defender.

CJ McCollum PG/SG - Has ability to be a creative scorer and put up 20 a night.  May lack athleticism of other top prospects.  Stock in draft has been rising.

Anthony Bennett SF/PF - “Tweener” forward with very high ceiling.  Athletic with ability of finishing near the rim and shoot with range.  Could have a hard time fitting in offense due to unique sizing.

Nerlens Noel C - Freak athlete with natural defensive ability.  Injury may cause some hesitation, plus will need to learn offensive skills.

Ben McLemore SG - Can catch and shoot well and work off of screens but may have issues creating his own offense.  High flyer and extremely athletic but has lapses defensively.  Not consistent from night to night in scoring output.

March Madness

Everyone get excited it is that time of year again.  The time of year where if you are in school, you constantly look at your phone to check scores.  The part of the year where if you work, and you’re lucky enough to work in front of a computer, you have a separate tab open up with a live video feed.  The part of the year when the word “bracket” gets used about 1,000,000% more than normal.  Don’t bother checking that statistic - it’s an estimate.  People we are talking about March Madness. 

March Madness brings people together.  People who know nothing about sports let alone college basketball are watching to see who wins because of a work pool.  Friends are driven apart when they have conflicting picks pitted against one another.  Its a tournament built for the underdog; the cinderella. 

When it all comes down to it that is why we watch.  We want to see the little guy win.  We want to see that team full of guys who alone are mediocre but together create something magical.  We want to see half court shots and full court presses.  We want clutch performances by a whole team.  We want David to beat Goliath. 

Not every year provides us with a cinderella team however.  Sometimes it takes one star player to help propel their team to greatness.  I remember a few years back when Kemba Walker took the nation by storm with clutch performance followed by clutch performance.  I want to see the nations best player make a buzzer beater to win the game.  I want to see the next NBA super star born in March.

March Madness is more than just brackets and bets.  It’s more than just basketball as well.  It’s about hope.  It’s about seeing yourself in their shoes and believing you can beat all the odds and be a champion.  For those last few minutes of a game during crunch time you feel the anxiety - the pressure.  You almost feel like you are wearing a jersey yourself.  You fight the pit in your stomach and as you bite your nails the ball is driven up the court.  Its quiet but you can hear each tick of the game clock like a gunshot.  Everyone’s eyes rest on the outcome of the next 15 seconds.  In a flash of your eyes the shot is up.  The game is either won or lost in a matter of milliseconds.   Before you have time to gather your thoughts on what you just witnessed - the next game is starting and you have this team in your final four.  It’s March Madness - try to stay sane.

Week 11 Picks

Week 10: 10-4  Overall: 90-56

Cardinals vs. Falcons

The Cardinals have loss 5 straight.  Their team is beatup and the defense is tired and frustrated.  I don’t know about other fans but I know I am already looking for remedies for next season.  They still can play spoiler, especially since they’ve played in some close games many times this year.  If they manage to keep up with the Falcons they have a chance.

Pick: Falcons

Browns vs. Cowboys

The Browns are the best 2 win team in the NFL.  The Cowboys show at times that they should be better than their 4-5 record.  Then other times you go, oh right, thats why they have a losing record.  This game could very well be close, closer then the 8 point spread.  But I’m still going Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys

Packers vs. Lions

Just when I thought you know, maybe the Lions can make a late push and surprise some people.  They lose to the Vikings which would have made it 3 wins in a row.  Now they face the ever dangerous although beat up Packers.  If Nelson plays I see the Packers winning.  If he doesn’t I think it’s more of a toss up.  Gennings being out so much this year has slowed down what was the best offense in football last year (well tied for first maybe with New Orleans).

Pick: Packers

Bengals vs. Chiefs

The Bengals are just another one of those teams you expected to be better this year.  After a hot 3-1 start they drop 4 in a row.  Then they put a womping on the struggling Giants.  As long as Dalton and Green are on the field together, this team could hang with anyone.  This week they have their weakest opponent of the season.  They should be ok.

Pick: Bengals

Jets vs. Rams

Both of these teams haven’t looked that great.  I’ve seen some rankings that really like the Rams though.  I guess when you look at each team the Rams are less of a mess.

Pick: Rams

Eagles vs. Redskins

This one was a tough one for me.  I am actually really excited to see an offense by the Eagles that flows through McCoy and not through Vick.  I think his absence in the offense might just facilitate that.  Right?  We will see how rattled Nick Foles gets.  The Redskins will be putting points on the board as longs as RG3 doesn’t get too crazy and puts himself in a position to get hurt again. 

Pick: Eagles

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

The Bucs are on a roll. They have won 4 of their last 5 and now take on an inconsistent Panthers team.  If Martin gets involved early and Freeman keeps being efficient, rack up another win for this Tampa Bay team.

Pick: Buccaneers

Jaguars vs. Texans

My upset pick of the weak, is not this game.  The Texans really should destroy the Jags.  Now we saw the Jaguars keep up with the Packers so they aren’t that bad right?  I just don’t see it happening.

Pick: Texans

Saints vs. Raiders

The Raiders are an odd team and often times I never know what to expect from them.  They are inconsistent.  They manage to almost beat the then undefeated Falcons then barely squeak by the lowly Jaguars.  Now Palmer could very well just go off against this defense with big long plays from Moore and check downs to Meyers but can they really keep up with Brees?

Pick: Saints

Chargers vs. Broncos

The Broncos are looking scary.  I mean like one of the best teams in the AFC scary.  Manning is a MVP candidate to some and he only builds on his case after each game.  If this game were close, I wouldn’t be shocked.  I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Broncos lay into the Chargers.

Pick: Broncos

Colts vs. Patriots

Ok this really is my upset of the week.  I am drinking the Andrew Luck Kool-Aid.  This team looks alive and excited.  They aren’t out there struggling to not get their ass kicked behind Curtis Painter.  They are out there competing week in and week out.  Wayne has proved he isn’t that old yet and can still dominate opposing defenses.  They will have to score a lot of points I think to keep up with the Pats.  If however, Hernandez and Welker (who are both questionable) don’t play.  Lookout.

Pick: Colts

Ravens vs. Seelers

Both defenses are beat up.  The Steelers are without starting quarterback and main reason they are 6-3 this year, Big Ben.  The Ravens, well they have their offense in tact.  I believe Leftwich gets the start.  I just don’t see Byron carrying this team the way Roethlisberger does. 

Pick: Ravens

Bears vs. 49ers

In this one we have another starting quarterback out.  Now if they weren’t playing the 49ers defense I would say it wouldn’t matter.  The offense could be more Forte focused but against this rush defense?  No way.  The 49ers are going to have to get a little creative to score as well.  This could be a very close game regardless of who is at quarterback for the Bears but I’m going with the healthy offense.

Pick: 49ers

Thursday Night Pick for Week 11

Week 10: 10-4  Overall: 90-55

Dolphins vs. Bills

This one was actually pretty tough for me.  CJ Spiller will be getting more touches now that Fred Jackson is hurt again, which is a good thing for Buffalo.  I'm not saying he'll maintain his ridiculous 7.3 YPC average but he's explosive.  He is going up against a pretty tough run defense but the Dolphins did just come off a blowout loss to the Titans where Chris Johnson totaled up 126.  The Bill's defense is atrocious so if Miami and their rookie quarter back are going to come out of their slump, this is the week to do it.

Pick: Dolphins

Week 9 Picks

Week 9: 9-5  Overall: 81-51

Giants vs. Bengals

The Bengals are struggling this year to reach .500 but with Dalton and Green on the team still they are fully capable of keeping up with most anyone.  The Giants have been winning in spite of less than exceptional play out of Eli.  Once Nicks gets more involved (which you’d assume has to be eventually), this offense should start clicking.

Pick: Giants

Titans vs. Dolphins

Titans get Jake Locker back in the fold this week against the Dolphins.  Although Chris Johnson may have a hard time getting things going against this rush defense, they can be thrown on.  Although the Dolphins are the better team, I see the Titans pulling out the W.

Pick: Titans

Lions vs. Vikings

The Vikings have lost two straight and do not look like they are on the right track.  The once tough defense of the Vikings, now are having a tough time stopping people from scoring on them.  The Lions who have been great offensively and defensively, finally are making that translate to wins.  Their streak will continue.

Pick: Lions

Bills vs. Patriots

The Bills are in shambles.  They aren’t even confident in Fitzpatrick who just got a huge contract last year.  They also cannot stop the run.  Look for a big day from Ridley. 

Pick: Patriots

Falcons vs. Saints

I don’t know about you but I keep waiting for the Falcons to lose a game and for the Saints to start winning more often.  Well the Saints for 3-1 the past 4 weeks but would probably need to win out in order to sneak in the playoffs.  I think they’ll have a hard time stopping Matty Ice and this potent offense though.

Pick: Falcons

Chargers vs. Buccaneers

The Chargers are hot and cold all year and the Bucs are streaking.  Freeman has being playing some of his best football the past few weeks and it finally looks like Doug Martin is living up to the hype.  The Chargers are tough to run on so look for Vincent Jackson to have a big game against his former team.

Pick: Buccaneers

Broncos vs. Panthers

The Broncos are on fire still and look to put some more hurting on the Panthers.  Steve Smith finally got his first TD last week but the Broncos defense is much better than Washington’s.  Manning will keep it rolling.

Pick: Broncos

Raiders vs. Ravens

People are saying the Ravens aren’t as good as their 6-2 record.  Although the Raiders are pesky, the Ravens are the better team.

Pick: Ravens

Jets vs. Seahawks

I’m not so sure that the Seahawks will win by the 6 point spread but they should beat the lowly Jets.  Look for Lynch to get a heavy workload after a few weeks of a pass heavy offense.

Picks: Seahawks

Cowboys vs. Eagles

This pick was a tough one.  These two teams are pretty similarly disappointing.  Until McCoy gets more involved the Eagles offense will continue to turn the ball over with Vick in charge.  The Cowboys have their own struggles but Romo is due for a big game like he occasionally gets.

Pick: Cowboys

Rams vs. 49ers

The Rams will have a really tough time scoring against this D. 

Pick: 49ers

Texans vs. Bears

This is the game of the week by far.  Some people might even think of this as a SuperBowl preview.  The Bears defense has been ridiculously good.  Cutler and Marshall have been hooking up often and Forte continues to run the ball well.  The Texans who in my opinion are the best team in the AFC will face the team who is playing the best football in the NFL right now.

Pick: Bears

Chiefs vs. Steelers

The Steelers should roll on the Chiefs.  A 12 point spread is quite a lot but they could very easily reach that.

Pick: Steelers

Thursday Night Pick Week 10

Week 9: 9-5  Overall: 81-51

Colts vs. Jaguars

The Colts are the better team especially with Luck behind the helm.  I wont go into details.  The Jaguars should have a tough time keeping up.

Pick: Colts

Week 9 Picks

Week 8: 10-4  Overall: 73-46

Broncos vs. Bengals

The Broncos are a hot team going into week 9.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with receiver Eric Decker getting 5 TDs during that span.  Their rapport that people speculated about all preseason is finally showing up.  The Bengals are going in the opposite direction.  after starting 3-1 they’ve quickly loss 3 straight.  After a much needed bye week we’ll see if they can rebound to form.  I think this could turn into a high scoring affair only if the talented AJ Green gets involved early.  Otherwise it could be all Denver.

Pick: Broncos

Ravens vs. Browns

The Browns have won 2 of their last 3 games including the Chargers in the middle of a storm.  The Ravens on the other hand although are a soft 5-2, meaning, although they have a good record, indication shows they might not be as good as advertised.  Injuries on their defense has helped them have a 24th ranked passing defense and 30th against the run.  Those aren’t typical numbers that a Baltimore defense will put up.  After a shellacking from the Texans and a bye week, look for a heavy Ray Rice workload.  Don’t get tricked into picking the Browns this week.

Pick: Ravens

Cardinals vs. Packers

The Packers only squeaked by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week without the help of Jennings and Nelson.  This week they have, although slumping, a tougher opponent in the Cardinals.  Defensively the Cardinals match up well.  The big question is weather or not the Cardinals offense can score.  Although the Packers D is banged up, Clay Matthews should still wreck havoc in the backfield.  This could  be a close game, but Green Bay just has too much talent.

Pick: Packers

Bears vs. Titans

Cutler and Marshal have appeared to return to their old Denver form.  Forte is back into rhythm and this defense has been amazing.  If they can keep away from any more destructive performances like against Green Bay, this team will be scary.

Pick: Bears

Dolphins vs. Colts

Both of these teams are 4-3.  The Dolphins have done it by running the ball and stopping the run.  The Colts have done it by throwing the ball and stopping the passing game.  I think I like Miami in this one however, they just seem like a more complete team right now.

Pick: Dolphins

Panthers vs. Redskins

The game of the two most athletic quarterbacks in the game.  The Panthers have a sophomore slumping Newton and the Redskins have an improving RG3. The main difference is that the Skins have a more complete team and a running game.

Pick: Redskins

Lions vs. Jaguars

The Jags hung for a while with the Packers last weekend so they aren’t all that bad right?  Wrong.  The Lions who are one of the most talented 3-4 teams you’ll see in the league should win this one.

Pick: Lions

Bills vs. Texans

The Texans are one of the best teams in the league.  They can pound the ball and play defense.  The Bills get ran on by anybody.  Opponents average almost 180 yards per game against them.  Foster and the Texans have to be salivating at the mouth.

Pick: Texans

Buccaneers vs. Raiders

Josh Freeman has been a hot QB as of late and after the biggest game of his career, Doug Martin and the Bucs looks to keep the ball rolling.  After a tough loss to the Falcons the Raiders have won two straight, but against some pretty poor teams.  This game could very easily be a shootout.  I think the edge will go to the team who can run the ball better, which will be the Bucs.  McFadden hasn’t been all that great this year and Tampa knows how to shut down the run.

Pick: Buccaneers

Vikings vs. Seahawks

The Vikes have been struggling as of late dropping two of their last three, the worse being last week against Tampa.  Now they face a pesky Seattle team.  Seattle has loss two straight road games but now return home where they are 3-0.  This is probably why they are favored in Vegas.    I think Minnesota will tighten up their defense miscues the past few weeks.  We will also see a heavy dose of Peterson, although his YPC may not be the best, it will open up the passing game for the dynamic Harvin.

Pick: Vikings

Steelers vs. Giants

Both of these teams identities have changed some over the years.  No longer are these teams a run first pass later offense.  Both of these offenses now go through these Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.  The Giants however are healthier on defense, which I think gives them the edge in this one.

Pick: Giants

Cowboys vs. Falcons

When will the Falcons lose?  I think it is fair to say that we all believe the Falcons are an elite team in the NFL, but very few think they will remain undefeated.  This week they are playing a confusing Cowboy team.  Just look last week when they mopped the floor of the NYG and won....wait...oh they turned the ball over how many times?  And his pinky was on the chalk line at the end huh...oh.  I think this week Jerry Jones Cowboys don’t quite shoot themselves in the foot.  If the they can slow down this passing attack like they did the Giants they’ll win this time.  I think.

Pick: Cowboys

Eagles vs. Saints

I have to admit I was disappointed with the Saints performance against the Broncos last week.  I thought it was time for one of those rolls that this team goes on.  Now they have 5 losses to the seasons and are losing some playoff hopes.  Especially without their star mighty mouse, Sproles.  Their opponent is in shambles as well however.  The Eagles have dropped 3 straight the most recent in the form of a beat down by the Falcons.  They have a question mark at their quarterback position and their head coach is in danger of losing his job.  This should be the week for a statement game right?  Nope, I see another let down to Philly fans.

Pick: Saints

Thursday Night Pick for Week 9

Week 8: 10-4  Overall: 73-46

Don’t have time for last weeks take a-ways.  Here is my Thursday pick as it starts (I’m not even watching it btw)

Chiefs vs Chargers

Neither one of these teams are playing all that great lately.  The Chargers after a hot start to the year have really fizzled the past few weeks.  They do however still have an intimating rush defense and a streaking Mathews (who’s YPC has been pretty good after returning from injury).  The Chiefs’ offense has looked dismal at times and seems to have no direction.  I’m going with the safe bet. 

Pick: Chargers

Week 8 Picks

Week 7: 13-1  Overall: 64-42

Freeman didn’t throw for over 300 but the Bucs did manage to pull off the upset against the Vikings.

Panthers vs. Bears

The Panthers just aren’t that good this year behind a struggling Cam Newton and the fazing out of DiAngelo Williams.  The Bears are starting to get on a roll now.  Matt Forte is clearly healthy and the Culter/Marshall dynamic is still there.  They are also allowing the fewest rushing yards per game.  Chicago should win handily.

Pick: Bears

Chargers vs. Browns

Although the Browns don’t have the most impressive stats they are usually in close games week in and week out.  After another tough loss against the Colts last weeks they’ll turn their focus on the disappointing Chargers.  They face the 2nd ranked rushing defense in the league so all of the pressure will fall onto the old rookie Weeden.  Although Rivers has been far from elite this year, I like his talented skill players better.

Pick: Chargers

Seahawks vs. Lions

The Seahawks tall corners should be able to slow down Calvin Johnson and this Detroit offense.  Detroit is one of those teams who look great on paper but have a hard time turning that into a “W”.  The Seahawks on the other hand do everything really well except pass the ball.  If they can hold on to the ball and dominate time of possession then they should be able to pull this one out.

Pick: Seahawks

Jaguars vs. Packers

The Jags are without MJD and face an on fire Aaron Rodgers.  I don’t see this one being very close at all.

Pick: Packers

Colts vs. Titans

Since Hasselbeck has taken over their offense the Titans have won two in a row.  Chris Johnson all of the sudden is back to normal as well.  The Colts are up and down this year.  I’m going to take the streaking Titans in a close match-up.

Pick: Titans

Patriots vs. Rams

The Patriots have struggled at times without Hernandez in the lineup and he is not making the trip to London this week.  Although the Rams are no pushover, I don’t see them hanging around in this one.

Pick: Patriots

Dolphins vs. Jets

The Jets have been playing better as of late but they face the pesky Dolphins.  Earlier in the year the Jets won in OT.  The Jets couldn’t run the ball but had some success through the air.  That was however with Holmes and Revis  in the lineup.  This time I see the Dolphins winning the close game.

Pick: Dolphins

Falcons vs. Eagles

I really think the Falcons can’t stay undefeated for much longer.  You would think, facing the talented Eagles this would be the week.  With each team coming off a buy it will be interesting to see what the game plan will be.  You would think that McCoy will finally see a heavier workload but Philly is under a new D-Coordinator.  Matt Ryan who was the MVP through the first 4 games of the year has had some touchy performances as of late.  Matty Ice still gets the W though.

Pick: Falcons

Redkins vs. Steelers

We all like watching the exciting Redskins.  They are usually throwing the ball up and down the field to try to keep up with their opponent.  Big Ben will most likely throw for well over 300 yards.  If they can hold onto the ball and limit sacks, they’ll get the victory.

Pick: Steelers

Raiders vs. Chiefs

With the QB situation going on in KC, Charles looks to get a heavy workload this week.  The Raiders, although inconsistent at least know where their chips lie.  I’ll take the speedy Raiders team.

Pick: Raiders

Giants vs. Cowboys

The Giants are starting to get on a roll with their third win in a row after losing week 4 to Philadelphia.  With Nicks seemingly fully healthy, Eli and the Giants look to put up some points.    The Cowboys are much like how I described the Lions earlier: great on paper, disappointing on the field.  Earlier in the year the Cowboys won a close game with the help of a 6.6 YPC from Murray.  He has been less impressive since and Eli has continued to prove he is elite.

Pick: Giants

Saints vs. Broncos

Watch out NFL the Saints might be getting on a roll.  After a tough 0-4 start, they have since gone 2-0 in spite of probably the worst defense in the league.  Manning and this offense is starting to click as well and what better week to showcase than against the Saints.  Look for a shootout in Denver. 

Pick: Saints

49ers vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals have loss 3 in a row after starting the season 4-0.  Everyone still agrees they have a wonderful defense but the offensive situation is just not promising.  As much as I hate saying it, the 49ers are my pick this week.  Expect a low scoring game.

Pick: 49ers

Week 7 Review and Thursday Pick

Week 7: 13-1  Overall: 63-42

So that might be the best week I’m going to have with picks.  Not to toot my own horn but only one loss isn’t too bad.  I definitely needed a boost in my overall record though.  Anyways here’s my take a-ways:

It takes a balanced team to win a game: offense, defense and special teams

Offense: The Cardinals last week held ponder to 58 passing yards...58.  The Cards defense also caused 2 turnovers.  Although Peterson ran all over them, they still had over 10 minutes more in time of possession. Just looking at that you would think, blow out.  Nope they lost pretty handily to the Vikings last week.  Failed conversions, turnovers and missed redzone opportunities killed them.  Doesn’t matter if you have the best defense in the league, you need some offensive production.

Defense: The Redskins with RG3 behind the center can score.  They are electric, fast and can run all over you with the help of Morris.  They put up 23 on the reigning Super Bowl champs including a late TD to seemingly give them the win.  With only 1:32 left in the fourth it was all but won right?  Right?  One play from Eli to Cruz and its over (basically).  Oh but he probably broke like 5 tackles or made some amazing juke move right?  Nope a blown coverage.   You let the fastest guy on the Giants offense loose in the middle of the field on a go route.  This has been the Skins all year, can’t stop anyone through the air.  BTW don’t tell the Saints you need a defense.  Brees will just try to out throw you.

Special Teams:  Let’s face it, we weren’t expecting a shoot out between Oakland and Jacksonville. Instead we got a field goal match (although yes there were 4 total TDs).  This is just an example of capitalizing on possible points.  Any of those field goals missed and there would have been no overtime.  Just like a kick off or a punt, you can never fall asleep on special teams.

Buccaneers vs. Vikings

Like I mentioned before the Vikings only threw for 58 yards and still won the football game.  They must have been really good at everything that game.  Which they were.  The Bucs lost a heart breaker against the Saints, in spite of Freeman’s and Jackson’s huge performance.  He only has thrown for over 300 yards 3 times in his career.  In case you were curious Freeman has thrown for over 300 yards in two straight weeks.  That streak will continue this week against the Vikes.

Pick: Bucs

Week 7 Picks

Week 6: 4-10 Overall: 51-41

Titans vs. Bills

The Titans have either gotten blown out or barely won so far this season, most recently a win over Pittsburgh that no-one really saw coming.  The rank last in rushing offense and are near the bottom of the barrel on defense.  Meanwhile the Bills can run the ball but can’t stop anyone from doing it on them.  If there is a game that Chris Johnson is to show some life this year, this is the week.

Pick: Titans

Browns vs. Colts

The Browns finally got their first win last week.  They’ve been given a rough schedule to start the year yea managed to stay competitive in most of them.  This week should be another close game.  The Colts can beat Minnesota and Green Bay but then lose to the lowly Jaguars and get destroyed by the Jets.  If the Browns can double up Wayne and run the ball efficiently, they’ll get their second win this year.

Pick: Browns

Packers vs. Rams

The Rams coming off a big win against the Cards are looking to keep the train rolling.  If they were to play the Packers a few weeks ago, I would say they have a chance.  Packers returned to form last week with a big win over the Texans.  The Packers should maintain last weeks dominance. 

Pick: Packers

Cardinals vs. Vikings

After two straight losses a lot of people are writing off the Cardinals as pretenders.  Even though Skelton was named the starter at the begining of the year, I can’t really see him doing too much better than Kolb did while he was QB.  The lack of running game plus the worst tackle combination in football will leave Skelton on the ground most the day.  If the Vikes can get the ball to Peterson often and early, they should pull out a close one.

Pick: Vikings

Redskins vs. Giants

The Giants had a huge win last week against a team, who some considered to be the best in football.  Their defense is on a roll as well as Bradshaw.  Nicks should be finally back and the perfect week against a shaky pass defense.  RG3 is talented but he can only cary the team so far.

Pick: Giants

Saints vs. Buccaneers

The Saints have done one thing well all year and that is pass the ball.  Starting 0-4 isn’t the best scenario but this team is very capable of going on a 10 game win streak at any moment.  Although they face a tough rush defense in the Bucs, they should be able to throw the ball up and down the field.  With a hot Freeman, and resurgence of Mike Williams after a tough sophomore season, this should be a shootout. 

Pick: Saints

Cowboys vs. Panthers

Both of these team aren’t living up to expectations this year.  Cam Newton is obviously going through a sophomore slump, which effects Steve Smiths output too.  Meanwhile Tony Romo has managed to throw 9 picks already this year.  I look for the Cowboys to bounce back after a rough loss last week to the Ravens.

Pick: Cowboys

Ravens vs. Texans

Both these defenses are battling injuries.  After seeing the way that Felix Jones could run and down against the Ravens, just imagine what Foster can do.  If the Texans can run well to start the game it’ll help out Schaub be more efficient. 

Pick: Texans

Jaguars vs. Raiders

Let’s face it, neither one of these teams are going anywhere this year.  Of the two teams however, Oakland is the least horrible. 

Pick: Raiders

Jets vs. Patriots

The Jets had a big win against the Colts.  Tebow might be getting more reps?  No Revis, no problem right?  Well although the Patriots are only 3-3 so far this year, they are still very much one of the best teams in the AFC.  Especially with Hernandez back in the lineup and scoring touchdowns already and Welker consistently involved.  The real problem for the Jet is stoping the run in this one though.

Pick: Patriots

Steelers vs. Bengals

This game will be a close one.  Both teams are talented, although like most AFC teams this year, their record doesn’t show it.  This could be a huge day for Dalton and AJ Green but whether they can keep up with Big Ben and all of those weapons is another story.

Pick: Steelers

Lions vs. Bears

Lions can throw for yards up and down the field, getting in the end-zone hasn’t been as easy at times.  The bears however outside of week 2 against the Packers, have won handily each week.  This might not be as handily but the Bears are too balanced for the Lions.

Pick: Bears

Weel 6 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 6: 4-10 Overall: 50-41

Last week was full of upsets, meaning I didn’t do so hot.  In fact, I tend not to pick so many upsets which hasn’t boded so well for my overall record.  That will be the theme this week; upsets and what they mean for the league.  Takeaways:

Records are only kind of important

There are 2 teams in the entire AFC with winning records: Baltimore and Houston.  That is 1 less than the amount of teams in the NFC West with winning records.  The only undefeated team left is Atlanta and they have been scraping wins the past few weeks.  San Francisco, who many thought was the best team in football hasn’t looked like it the past few weeks.  Then you look at Vegas and they rank the 3-3 New England Patriots as the best team in football.  It is very early in the season and records are only good enough to get you into the playoffs.  After the playoffs start everyone is 0-0.

Nobody knows who the best team in football is.

This kind of goes into the topic above.  The team with the best record is struggling the past few weeks.  The Texans lost Cushing and have an awful yards per rushing attempt.  The Ravens defense is allowing rushing yards like nobodies business which doesn’t help their offense look any better.  The Patriots look good on the field but manage to pull out a 3-3 record.  The Giants might be the best team in football but they seem to take weeks off.  The Packers look off all season until last week when they put up 42 against the Texans.  The Broncos also at 3-3 only seem to improve every week.  I have no idea what’s going on in the NFL, and I love it that way.  Any given Sunday right?

Michael Vick is not the right fit for the Eagles

Maybe it is the system they run under Reid or maybe it is the fact that Vick can’t hold onto the football.  Either way Vick’s turnovers are costing the Eagles W’s.  When playing behind, the play calls are pass heavy.  This puts the ball in the hands of a QB who is small and fumble prone.  When you have one of the best backs in football, why not give him the ball?  By the way, firing your defensive coordinator will not solve you problems.

Seahawks vs. the 49ers

The Seahawks have proven they can hang with anybody and if you can hang with a team, there is a chance you can beat them as well.  Both of these teams are in a 3 way tie for first place in the West, and have relied heavily on their defense (although for a 2 week span the ‘9ers were putting up points like it was Montana/Rice again).  This will be a low scoring affair and I believe it will be close, since these teams match up very similarly.  I give the nod to the more experienced team however.

Winner: 49ers

Week 6 Picks

Week 5: 10-4  Overall: 46-32

So the Steelers lost to the Titans.  I don’t feel so bad since every single NFL expert picked Pittsburgh as well.  Here is week 6:

Raiders vs. Falcons

The Raiders have been inconsistent at best while the Falcons continue to shine each week with the help of Matt Ryan and his dynamic offensive weapons.  Although McFadden has stayed healthy, he has not had a big start to the season like he did last year.  He needs to have a great game for the Raiders to keep up.  Falcons don’t seem like the type of team who will go undefeated this year, but this is not the week they are handed their first loss.

Pick: Falcons

Bengals vs. Browns

The Browns aren’t as bad as their 0-5 record, but the Bengals are a very solid team.  The Bengals have potential to put up some big numbers against this struggling defense.  If they fall short and keep it a low scoring game the Browns have a chance with the help rookie Trent Richardson.  The Bengals offense might be tough for the Browns to keep up with.

Pick: Bengals

Rams vs. Dolphins

This looks to be an intriguing match-up.  The Rams got a big win over Arizona last week by putting Kolb in the dirt what felt like every other play.  The Dolphins will run on you and run on you well with a multitude of talented backs.  Oh, and they stop you from running too.  A struggling Bradford doesn’t get much better with the loss of his number one target Amendola.  The Dolphin’s D helps them win this game.

Pick: Dolphins

Colts vs. Jets

Reggie Wayne is not only the most targeted receiver in football he also continues to put up huge numbers.  This team looked bound and determined to play well for Chuck Pagano.  Now they look to keep the ball rolling against the disappointingly bad Jets.  Without Revis this defense is mediocre and their offense is even worse.  Look for a another good performance from Andrew Luck.

Pick: Colts

Lions vs. Eagles

The Eagles lost a game that they could have won last week against Pittsburgh.  Now they face the 1-3 Lions who have yet to get in a rythm offensively.  If this game becomes a shootout, whoever gives up the least amount of turnovers will win.  If only the Eagles knew how good they would be if they gave McCoy the ball, they would run away with this one.

Pick: Eagles

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

The Chiefs have their running attack back this year with a healthy dose of Charles.  They now don’t have their quarterback this week.  Former Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn will take over as the starter.  This bodes well for the Bucs.  If they can contain Charles they win easy.

Pick: Buccaneers

Cowboys vs. Ravens

The Ravens here are clearly the better over all team.  They are a team on a roll while the Cowboys continue to crumble.  I think both of those trends will continue.

Pick: Ravens

Bills vs. Cardinals

The Bills defense continues to give up points.  Fitzpatrick looks great at times and other times he appears to be intentionally throwing to the opposition.  The Cardinals coming off their first loss of the season will be without their top two back, Wells and Williams.  Stephens-Howling will try to pick up some of the slack but explosive as he may be, he is not an every down back.  This will be another week of a large amount of pass attempts for Kolb.  If he continues to get sacked, they’ll be in trouble.

Pick: Cardinals

Patriots vs. Seahawks

The Patriots are very good.  They are even better when they run the ball.  The Seahawks, as pedestrian as their quarterback play has been this year, is a pretty good team.  They play tough defense and shut down your receivers with corners who are over 6 feet tall.  Seattle also has a guy on offense capable of going beast mode, which is helpful.  If it is low scoring the Seahawks have a good chance of pulling out an upset.  I just find it hard to believe they can get much going offensively.

Pick: Patriots

Giants vs. 49ers

Both of these teams are good.  Very good.  The 49ers the past few weeks look indestructible as Alex Smith looks like a first over all pick (oh wait he was).  The Giants might finally be getting Nicks back to add to their already potent offense.  With a pass rush that can get to the quarterback, this could be a good test for the ‘9ers to see if they really are the best (or top 3) team in the league.

Pick: 49ers

Viking vs. Redskins

The Skins almost pulled out an upset against the Falcons last week but RG3 had to be taken out of the game after a hard hit.  This week he faces a whole ‘nother monster.  This team is very different, more like the trend we are seeing in the NFL; defense, running game, and solid QB play.  I think this Viking team is for real for at least the regular season. 

Pick: Vikings

Packers vs. Houston

This is another great match-up this week.  The underwhelming Packers team faces the undefeated behemoth that is the Texans.  Rogers who has been suffering from bad o-line play and his top receiver unable to make it on the field, must find another way to win.  Oh did we mention his starting running back is out for the year.  Houston meanwhile is on a tear.  They have been running the ball well as expected but a healthy Schaub makes for an efficient Schaub.  Plus this Houston defense is amazing, even after being depleted in the offseason.  Even with Cushing out for the year, I look for them to make life rough for Rogers next week.

Pick: Houston

Broncos vs. Chargers

Both of these teams are in similar positions.  They are in the same devision which is a weak one. Both at times look formable and at other times look middle of the road.  They both have QBs trying to prove themselves.  The Chargers have a young talented running back who had a break out game last week however.  If they get Mathews involved early I like the Chargers chances.

Pick: Chargers

Thursday Night Pick and Week 5 results

Week 5: 10-4  Overall: 46-31

Another 10 win week.  I know I am late to this one so it will be as basic as it gets.  No take aways from last week  right now maybe at the beginning of the next post.

Stealers vs. Titans

The Titans have been struggling and a lot of that is due to Chris Johnson not getting anything going this season (besides one game).  This week they have a tough match-up in Pittsburgh who shut down McCoy last week to a season low in yards.  Look for Big Ben to light it up this week, especially with the improved backfield of Mendenhall. 

Pick: Steelers

Week 5 Picks

Week 4: 10-5  Overall: 36-28

Well the Cardinals got handed their first loss Thursday against the Rams.  It we all knew they had their problems on offense but that was a lot of sacks and missed opportunities.  Week 5 picks!

Dolphins vs. Bengals

The Dolphins are better than their 1-3 record would lead you to believe.  Young Ryan Tannehill is playing well, Hartline although not a premeir talent is putting up good numbers and they seem to run the ball well no matter who is in the backfield.  The Bengals are leaning on their 2 sophomore studs Dalton and Green.  Although their defense isn’t quite what it was last year, they haven’t needed it. 

Pick: Bengals

Packers vs. Colts

Luck has played well thus far this season and especially for those with Reggie Wayne on their fantasy team.  They have a tough matchup this week with Green Bay.  The Packers have underwhelmed a lot of people this year and a lot of it has come from a lack of an explosive offense.  They will look to get back on pace this week even without the injured Gennings.

Pick: Packers

Ravens vs. Chiefs

Flacco has continued to try to prove he is an elite quarterback in this league, and has done a pretty good job so far.  Torrey Smith has improved his consistency although he has relied on big plays down field.  Charles looks to have fully recovered from his torn ACL last year ranking 2nd in the league in rushing.  The Ravens however, are just too balanced for the Chiefs. 

Pick: Ravens

Browns vs. Giants

The Giants typically get off to a slow start each year, yet are still doing pretty well through the air even without their true number one guy, Hakeem Nicks.  The Browns are a better team than their 0-4 record would make you think but have a uphill batter to beat the Super Bowl champs.

Pick: Giants

Eagles vs. Steelers

The Eagles look to be on the right track even though they have been quite up and down all year.  If the turn overs continue to go down and McCoy’s workload increases they are very formidable.  The Steelers have relied much more on the passing attack of Big Ben and less and less on their historically good defense.  This week could have a lot of big plays, mostly through the air.  Rashard Mendenhall is back in action for the first time this year but I  don’t see him making a huge difference unless it’s near the goal line.  This looks to be an interesting game.

Pick: Eagles

Falcons vs. Redskins

I’m sure a lot of people will be picking this as their upset of the week.  RG3 is this years Cam Newton doing it all on offense.  Well not all of it, Morris has been running the ball extremely well too.  Their defense is another story and this week they face one of the hottest offenses in football.  Matt Ryan has looked like an MVP so far this season and Roddy White continues to be the man.  The Falcons just have too many weapons and if they continue to hold on to the football, it will be hard for anyone to beat them this year.

Pick: Falcons

Seahawks vs. Panthers

Cam Newton is still a freak of an athlete but it hasn’t accounted for wins in the NFL.  It hasn’t even accounted for that much of a productive season statistically either.  This week they face another one of the tough NFC West defenses.  Seattle is tough to run on ranking 2nd in rushing defense and 2nd in overall defense.  If the Seahawks get any sort of offensive production I see them pulling out the W.

Pick: Seahawks

Bears vs. Jaguars

We all know the Jags aren’t that good.  The Bears although inconsistent have an easy matchup this week.  Look for Forte to get back into the swing of the offense this week.

Pick: Bears

Titans vs. Vikings

The Titans finally got some offensive production out of Chris Johnson last week but now face an under rated Vikings D.  The Vikings are another one of those teams in the league this year that rely on good defense, runnings the ball and limiting turnovers.  Plus Percy Harvin odes everything on the field.  He is like a real life Boobie Miles. 

Pick: Vikings

Broncos vs. Patriots

Another classic Peyton vs. Brady game.  This time Manning will be sporting orange and blue.  Each week Manning is looking more comfortable in the offense.  Meanwhile Brady who has been hot and cold, came up big late last week against the Bills.  I’d like to see this be a close game for old time sakes but if New England can run the ball like they did last week they should be fine.

Pick: Patriots

Bills vs. 49ers

The Bills have been battling injuries and blown leads.  Things don’t get any easier this week as they face the 49ers and their ridiculous defense.  If Fitzpatrick and limit Ints they might keep it close otherwise the 49ers will handle this team easily. 

Pick: 49ers

Chargers vs. Saints

Rivers and the Chargers offense is starting to get in the swing of things.  Even with their star running back coming off the bench, putting up points on this New Orleans team won’t be too difficult.  The question is if they can keep up.  Although they aren’t winning, Brees is still putting up tons of yards and a good amount of TDs.  I see New Orleans finally coming out of their slump.  It is just too un-like a Turner’s Chargers team to start the season so well.

Pick: Saints

Texans vs. Jets

The Jets aren’t that good.  They now are without Reevis and the boo-birds have started asking for Tebow.  The Texans however are still the most balanced team in football.  I see the Texans flying to the East Coast and taking care of business.

Pick: Texans

Week 4 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 4: 10-5  Overall: 36-27

Another 10 win week for me.  Let’s see if I can improve next week.  Here are my take aways from week 4.

Don’t be the ones playing pissed off powerhouses

After two straight losses and being down 21-7 sometime in the 3rd quarter the New England Patriots looked to be going down the wrong path to success.  Then something clicked and Brady lit up the Bills for a total of 52 points (31 in the 4th quarter!!).  Brady better watch out, if he continues to have that pissed focused look on his face it just might stay that way. 

The 49ers are the other power house who handed out an ass kicking.  After a tough lost to an apparently good Viking team, the 49ers defense was looking to hand out punishment.  What better way to do it than to face the no offense Jets.  Poor Sanchez just might get benched for a running ba...I mean Tim Tebow.  On a positive note, Rex Ryan has lost some weight guys!

I’ll never understand certain team’s consistency issues

Chicago can’t decide if they are an elite team in the NFC or if they are shackled by Jay Cutler and their offensive line.  One week they are getting destroyed by Green Bay then next they are dominating a Dallas team who on paper should be better than they were last year.  Maybe they will be more consistent going forward baring injury. 

Philadelphia is another team I don’t understand.  Weeks 1 and 2 they turn the ball over like crazy but still win.  Week 3 they pay for their turnovers.  Week 4 they beat a talented Giants team (less talented without Nicks on the field though).  The Eagles have gone from talks of starting U of A QB Nick Foles to now praising that Vick is back.  They don’t turn the ball over this week, which in prior weeks would have meant they would dominate opponents, yet instead they squeak by this week.  Dynasty anyone?

Another week of 3 undefeateds

There are three undefeated teams left still after week 4: Texans, Falcons, Cardinals.  The Texans are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They have the best running attack in the NFL by far and have a more than capable QB (as we saw in week 3).  They have a healthy Andre Johnson and a back up running back that will start in most leagues.  Oh yea their defense has been great also.

The Falcons continue to ride on the success of Matt Ryan (who I drafted in my fantasy league, based on reports of increased pass attempts).  Turner proved last week that he still can contribute when given the chance (regardless of any DUIs).  Roddy White is clearly still “the man” and Julio Jones will still put up great numbers from time to time.  Their defense has shown that it is capable of playing with a lead too, being ranked 8th in the league in pass defense.  This team is probably the second best team in the league behind the Texans in my opinion right now.

The Cardinals are the surprise team here.  I’ll admit, I’m an avid Cardinal fan, but I surely didn’t expect this.  Kolb stepped up when it mattered most and wont the Cardinals a week 4 contest they probably shouldn’t have.  Costly turnovers helped Arizona against an amazing performance from Tannehill and Hartline (who seemed to run only two routes all game: hitch/curl and hitch and go).  We’ll see if they can keep this up but the offense will need to greatly improve if they want to make a splash in this years playoffs.

Thursday night game:

Cardinals vs. Rams

The Rams surprised me last week against the Seahawks as they continue to pick off opposing QBs.  This week their task of AZ isn’t much tougher (offensively).  I see this game being quite low scoring.  If your Arizona however, Danny Amendola scares me.  Just look at what Brian Hartline did last week against your secondary, now you face another great route runner who focuses on short to mid range routes.  Much like most of each of these 2 teams victories thus far, this game will come down to turnovers.  Which ever team can force timely turnovers and increase their field position will win.  I’m going with the hot hand.

Pick: Cardinals

Week 4 Picks

Week 3: 10-6  Overall: 27-22

Thanks to the best quarterback in the league’s (in his opinion) 356 passing yards out of 46 passing attempts the Ravens handled the lowly Browns last Thursday.  Now for the rest of the week:

Patriots vs. Bills

The Bills are 2-1 very much with the help of their running game.  It has eased some of the pressure off of Fitzpatrick allowing him to not be forced to force the ball.  Spiller is questionable to start but it seems Jackson will get back on the field sooner than initially expecting.  I still think Brady and Bilichick are angry and plan on rolling over the divisional rival Bills.

Pick: Patriots

49ers vs. Jets

The 49ers were stunned last week against the Vikings.  This week they face a struggling Jets team with inconsistency on offense and no Revis on defense.  I look for the Niners to bounce back to their dominating form.

Pick: 49ers

Seahawks vs. Rams

The Seahawks have proven to me so far that season that they have a good defense, a quality running game and the refs who shall not be named anymore, absolutely favored them in 2 out of their 3 games.  They won’t need it in this one.  Seattle’s athletic corners should be able to handle their only receiving threat, Amendola. 

Pick: Seahawks

Panthers vs. Falcons

Cam Newton is struggling so far this season.  And after seeing what the Atlanta pass defense did to Rivers once they had a lead does not bode well for Newton.  I have a hard time believing you can stop this Falcons offense right now and if anyone is, it is unlikely that Carolina will be that team.

Pick: Falcons

Vikings vs. Lions

After a hot start last year the Lions open the gates 1-2.  Stafford hasn’t been quite himself and is now battling another injury.  Leshore’s emergance as a running threat along with the best receiver in football gives them a chance every week to put up numbers.  They haven’t been able to stop very many people though.  Ponder has looked great so far this season but did so against 2 poor defenses and what was that other one?  Oh right the 49ers.  Last week Ponder only threw for 198 yards but has yet to through a pick this year and threw two redzone TDs.  If it’s a shooting match I see the Lions winning, if its low scoring the Vikings should win. 

Pick: Lions

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Chargers had a horrible lost last week as the Chiefs finally got a win with the help of Jamaal Charles (he’s back!).  Rivers and Turner will be happy they are facing a Cheifs defense that ranks 28th in points allowed this season.  If the Cheifs get out to t a slow start again and have to abandon the run, it could be bad news for them.  If they stick to the running game (although I don’t see Charles getting 30+ carries again), they will be in better shape.

Pick: Chargers

Texans vs. Titans

Although Locker had a big game last week, they still have yet to get productivity out of their star running back Chris Johnson and this week they face the Texans.  Houston is the most balanced team in football (and possibly the best).  Look for Foster and the gang to keep rolling.

Pick: Texans

Bengals vs. Jaguars

MJD is still a monster out of the backfield.  Outside of that though, the Jags aren’t impressive at all.  Dalton, however continues to impress me as he takes more control of the offense.  Also A.J. Green week in and week out is proving he is one of the top receivers in the league.

Pick: Bengals

Raiders vs. Broncos

You have Peyton Manning now what?  Well starting 1-2 probably isn’t what they expected, yet it isn’t all that surprising  to people who aren’t Denver fans. The Raiders had a big win over the Steelers last week and look to keep the ball rolling.  Maybe that Carson Palmer deal could work out in the end.  Like last year this division will be very much up for grabs.  Even though Heyward Bey’s absence hurts, leaning on McFadden will help.

Pick: Raiders

Dolphins vs. Cardinals

Everyone is picking the Cardinals.  Their defense destroyed Vick last week so if your Ryan Tannehill you must be having a rough time getting some sleep this week.  The Dolphins are good at the running game (both offensively and defensively) and the Eagles when they ran the ball last week (which wasn’t much) did so well against AZ.  Gotta stay with the hot hand and Ray Horton’s defense though.

Pick: Cardinals

Redskins vs. Buccaneers

RG3 although exciting is having trouble winning games (sound familiar Carolina fans?).  The Bucs look inconsistent at times as well.  This week I look for all those fancy stats for RG3 to amount to a win. 

Pick: Redskins

Saints vs. Packers

I wouldn’t have believed it if you told me these two teams combined record would be 1-5.  Sadly for the Saints the play on the road again.  In a possible high scoring affair, I just think the Packers are an all around better team.

Pick: Packers

Giants vs. Eagles

Last week Arizona showed everyone Philly’s true colors.  They can’t hold on to the football and don’t run the ball as much as they should.  The Giants continue to look like a dominant football team and much of this is without the help of Hakeem Nicks who is doubtful to play again.  They have so many options though that they should be fine.

Pick: Giants

Bears vs. Cowboys

Both teams got victories last week off of lack luster performances.  The Cutler to Marshal combination hasn’t been seen since week one and they face a tough Dallas secondary who could shut them down much like Green Bay did.  The Cowboys are having trouble finding an offensive rhythm as Jason Witten continues to be a non-factor.  I strongly believe that once Forte is truly back to full health, this Chicago team will begin to roll.  This week I don’t think is the week for that however. 

Pick: Cowboys

Week 3 Overview and Thursday Night Pick

Week 3: 10-6  Overall: 26-22

Week 3 is another step in the right direction.  I’m not sure if there were just less upsets or I’m actually improving.  Things that stood out in week 3:

 There are no certainties in the NFL.

Simply looking at records who would have thought that so many teams that were successful last year would be not so much this year (yet).  The Patriots (1-2), Packers (1-2), Steelers (1-2), Lions (1-2), and the Saints (0-3) all post losing records.  The QBs don’t seem to be playing at as high as a level as one would expect (unless you are Big Ben or Matt Ryan).  I mean who would have though that through three weeks that Kevin Kolb, Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder would all have higher QB ratings than Brees, Rodgers, and Brady.  Through the first two weeks the most prolific runners in the game were Reggie Bush and C.J. Spiller.  Then they both get hurt in week 3.  These rankings are sure to change and the some of the regular super stars will climb back to superiority but for now, the NFL is refreshingly out of the ordinary. 

 If Kolb plays like he did in week 3 the Cards are scary.

Ok.  We get it.  The Cardinals defense is scary good.  Their secondary has been locking down receivers with their safeties clocking people all over the field.  I mean just ask Mike Vick (if he can even remember) how hard Kerry Rhodes hit him last week.  Not only that but their linebacking core is young and deep.  With a slender Dan Williams and the always impressive Docket and Campbell, the rush has been superb.  Although Beannie will be out for a significant amount of time with turf toe, almost rookie (missed all of last season) Ryan Williams looked explosive in 2 drives late in the game against the Eagles.  Fitz showed why he is still considered on of the best and undervalued Andre Roberts continues to contribute.  If Kolb plays like he did last week with 17/24, 222 yards with 2 TDs and no picks, the Cardinals might be a forced to be reckoned  with.  Quick fact: Kolb is 3rd in the league in QB rating through 3 weeks.

 The Green Bay, Seattle game forced the leagues hand, the Refs are back

I wont spend too much time on it.  It was an awful call on the field, awful job at reviewing the play and awful job of not taking ownership after the fact by Goodell. People were outraged and deservedly so.  Now we all get our wish and the old refs are back.  Finally a familiar face when we complain on sunday about how much the refereeing sucks.

Thursday night game:

Browns vs. Ravens

The Ravens are clearly a better team over all.  Weeden has looked ok at times and Richardson is a dynamic option out of the backfield.  The Browns also have one of the best corners in the league but he won’t be playing.  The Ravens will let Flacco fly in this one.  It could get ugly.

Pick: Ravens