Fantasy Football for Dummies - 5 Tips

You love football.  So much so that your friends bug you about joining their fantasy league.  Maybe you did join but seem to be at the bottom of the  totem pole every year.  Well I am here to try to help.  Now these are just tips that work for me but hopefully they will work for you too.  Keep in mind sometimes you get lucky (or unlucky) in fantasy football.  So here we go, top 5 tips to help win your fantasy football league!

1)  Start with a top running back

You might be like a lot of people in my league, from Arizona so naturally you will want to pick Larry Fitzgerald in the first round right?  Nope!  You will want to most certainly go with a elite running back first if at all possible.  You say, “but this is a passing league so a quarterback should go first right?” 

Who here likes economics?  Think of it like supply and demand: There are a high number of quarterbacks in this league who put up really good numbers. Since this is a passing league, there are a large number of receivers who put up good numbers too.  There are however, a smaller number of quality running backs.  In fact, the difference between an elite back and average back is much higher than the difference between elite and average QBs or WRs.

Position	Player	2012 Fantasy Points*	Ranking by Position	Difference from Leader
RB	Adrian Peterson	307.4	1
RB	Frank Gore	202.6	10	104.8
RB	Shonn Greene	167.4	15	140
QB	Drew Brees	335.58	1
QB	Russell Wilson	275.62	10	59.96
QB	Eli Manning	232.92	15	102.66
WR	Calvin Johnson	220.4	1
WR	Roddy White	177.1	10	43.3
WR	Reggie Wayne	163	15	57.4

*Stats from Fantasy.NFL.com

2)  Do your homework

This is probably the step most people will skip.  If you want to be good at fantasy football you MUST research.  You must see which players are expected to get higher roles in their offense.  You must check up on injuries or competition at their position.  Check rankings and read articles.  This will help immensely in your drafting strategy as well as your waiver wire pick up. 

Checking waiver wires and free agency is something you should be doing very frequently.  One persons trash could be your treasure.  Look at Victor Cruz a few years ago.  No one knew who he was, now he’s due a huge contract and is a top WR.

This also applies to knowing the scoring system of your league.  Is it PPR?  Do QBs get penalized for sacks and INTs?  What about running backs for fumbles?  Do RB/WR/TE receive different points per reception?  This will help you target certain players over others based on their unique abilities and their team situation.

3)  Who gets targeted the most

It is pretty simple.  When receivers (and other players) get a high number of targets, they have a higher chance of putting up fantasy points.  This does not always mean high targets = lots of points.  Sometimes a quarterbacks performance or the teams opponent will negatively effect fantasy output in-spite of high targets.

Player	Fantasy Ranking by Points	Targets
Calvin Johnson	1	205
Reggie Wayne	15	194
Brandon Marshall	2	194
Wes Welker	12	174
Andre Johnson	8	164
AJ Green	4	164

As you can see many of the top targeted receivers also had the best fantasy output.  Also many highly targeted WR did not put up elite numbers.  This ties back into doing your homework.  Is the WR the #1 target on their team?  Do they receive a lot of double coverage?  Was their fantasy output last year due to a high number of receptions/yards or a high amount of TDs?  A high amount of looks plus their situation should effect your ranking.

4)  Whatever you do, Kickers and Defenses are picked last

Please do this.  I cannot tell you how many times I’ve played in a league where kickers and defenses are picked early.  Last year in one of my drafts I picked Reggie Wayne after some people had their kickers and defenses picked.  This goes back to economics and difference.  A top kicker and defenses points will not be all that different from an average one.

5)  Take chances in late rounds

Your late rounds are to help your bench.  Guys to fill in bye weeks or incase of injury.  That should not be the mentality of your late round picks.  Late round picks are the ones you take chances on.  Is their a guy who has talent up the wazoo but has character issues?  What about a guy who is coming of a big injury but has put up numbers before?  Is there a player who is in a new system who hasn’t gotten the chance to shine before?  The late rounds is where you make a championship team.  You hope that in a late round you find a guy who everyone else missed, who will not be a bench player only to see PT during bye weeks, but a guy who outshines your original starting lineup.  Do not take late rounds lightly, they are very important.

Conclusion:

Hopefully that helps all of you out in your leagues.  Again, this is what I have found to help me win in my leagues.  It will not always work even if you do everything right.  Some guys will have “off” years.  Many times you will fight injury bugs (I cannot tell you how many potentially good teams I have had ruined due to multiple nagging injuries).  Keep your head up and do your best!  And remember, this is supposed to be fun!

Suns Add Hope in the Form of GM Ryan McDonough

As of Tuesday the Phoenix Suns have hope once again.  This time it’s in the form of new GM Ryan McDonough.  McDonough at the young age of 33, has spent the past decade with the Boston Celtics.  On ESPN 620 with Burns and Gambo, he told his story.  McDonough started from the ground up in Boston, by creating his own entry level position - editing scouting videos.  Eventually since he looked at so much film on players, his oppinion was asked from time to time.  Through his hard work and determination, McDonough would work his way up the ranks to become the Celtics Assistant GM.

McDonough is highly touted for his scouting ability.  When respected GM Danny Ainge says that “he’s played a huge part in our success” and that McDonough is like a son to him, that’s a good sign.  He lobbied for the Celtics to draft players like Rajon Rando and Bradley Avery.  Being as the Suns could have as many as 9 draft picks within the next two years, scouting talent will be key. 

Whether it is a lottery pick or the last pick in the first round, McDonough will have to make it count.  On the air he openly admitted it will be a long process.  Even Sarver admitted on ESPN 620 that they will be in a rebuilding process, and although he has trouble waiting for success, he must be patient. 

Winning in the NBA revolves around finding “the guy”, the stud of your team that everyone covets, and then placing enough talent around him to succeed.  The Thunder found Kevin Durrant and drafted well around him.  The Heat signed their “guy” and signed others for support.  Based on what we know about McDonough, it seems like the drafting route is in store for us.  The question is, will we be lucky enough to find our “guy”?

The number one priority for the new GM is finding a coach, which is already in the works.  It has been said Lindsey Hunter is a candidate but popular belief is his consideration is more of a formality.  McDonough will most likely want to put his stamp on the team, which means a fresh face. 

Speaking of fresh faces, we may see a lot of new ones in a Suns uniform next year.  Since we now seem to be committed to rebuilding, players like Luis Scola or Martin Gortat may find their way on another team.  Not because they are poor players but because they do not fit along with the “youth movement”. 

After being investigated for sexual assault, Michael Beasley may finally find his way off of the Suns roster as well.  A vastly under performing Beasley has been one of the main targets for Sun’s fans woes.  This may be just the excuse needed to finally cut ties.  When asked about Beasley on the air, both Sarver and McDonough responded with “no comment” (Sarver even repeated it about 4 times). 

Suns fans will have a lot to look forward to in the coming months.  New GM, new HC, and a mostly new roster.  Personally I am most interested to see the directed McDonough decides to do in the draft.  It has been said he rates players based on their averages, not highs or lows, simply because you want to know what kind of output you can rely on every night out of a guy.  Below are a few of my favorites.

Victor Oladipo SG - High motor, great athleticism.  Has ability to be a slashing scorer but may lack ability to score in isolation situations.  Great lockdown defender.

CJ McCollum PG/SG - Has ability to be a creative scorer and put up 20 a night.  May lack athleticism of other top prospects.  Stock in draft has been rising.

Anthony Bennett SF/PF - “Tweener” forward with very high ceiling.  Athletic with ability of finishing near the rim and shoot with range.  Could have a hard time fitting in offense due to unique sizing.

Nerlens Noel C - Freak athlete with natural defensive ability.  Injury may cause some hesitation, plus will need to learn offensive skills.

Ben McLemore SG - Can catch and shoot well and work off of screens but may have issues creating his own offense.  High flyer and extremely athletic but has lapses defensively.  Not consistent from night to night in scoring output.

March Madness

Everyone get excited it is that time of year again.  The time of year where if you are in school, you constantly look at your phone to check scores.  The part of the year where if you work, and you’re lucky enough to work in front of a computer, you have a separate tab open up with a live video feed.  The part of the year when the word “bracket” gets used about 1,000,000% more than normal.  Don’t bother checking that statistic - it’s an estimate.  People we are talking about March Madness. 

March Madness brings people together.  People who know nothing about sports let alone college basketball are watching to see who wins because of a work pool.  Friends are driven apart when they have conflicting picks pitted against one another.  Its a tournament built for the underdog; the cinderella. 

When it all comes down to it that is why we watch.  We want to see the little guy win.  We want to see that team full of guys who alone are mediocre but together create something magical.  We want to see half court shots and full court presses.  We want clutch performances by a whole team.  We want David to beat Goliath. 

Not every year provides us with a cinderella team however.  Sometimes it takes one star player to help propel their team to greatness.  I remember a few years back when Kemba Walker took the nation by storm with clutch performance followed by clutch performance.  I want to see the nations best player make a buzzer beater to win the game.  I want to see the next NBA super star born in March.

March Madness is more than just brackets and bets.  It’s more than just basketball as well.  It’s about hope.  It’s about seeing yourself in their shoes and believing you can beat all the odds and be a champion.  For those last few minutes of a game during crunch time you feel the anxiety - the pressure.  You almost feel like you are wearing a jersey yourself.  You fight the pit in your stomach and as you bite your nails the ball is driven up the court.  Its quiet but you can hear each tick of the game clock like a gunshot.  Everyone’s eyes rest on the outcome of the next 15 seconds.  In a flash of your eyes the shot is up.  The game is either won or lost in a matter of milliseconds.   Before you have time to gather your thoughts on what you just witnessed - the next game is starting and you have this team in your final four.  It’s March Madness - try to stay sane.

Week 11 Picks

Week 10: 10-4  Overall: 90-56

Cardinals vs. Falcons

The Cardinals have loss 5 straight.  Their team is beatup and the defense is tired and frustrated.  I don’t know about other fans but I know I am already looking for remedies for next season.  They still can play spoiler, especially since they’ve played in some close games many times this year.  If they manage to keep up with the Falcons they have a chance.

Pick: Falcons

Browns vs. Cowboys

The Browns are the best 2 win team in the NFL.  The Cowboys show at times that they should be better than their 4-5 record.  Then other times you go, oh right, thats why they have a losing record.  This game could very well be close, closer then the 8 point spread.  But I’m still going Dallas.

Pick: Cowboys

Packers vs. Lions

Just when I thought you know, maybe the Lions can make a late push and surprise some people.  They lose to the Vikings which would have made it 3 wins in a row.  Now they face the ever dangerous although beat up Packers.  If Nelson plays I see the Packers winning.  If he doesn’t I think it’s more of a toss up.  Gennings being out so much this year has slowed down what was the best offense in football last year (well tied for first maybe with New Orleans).

Pick: Packers

Bengals vs. Chiefs

The Bengals are just another one of those teams you expected to be better this year.  After a hot 3-1 start they drop 4 in a row.  Then they put a womping on the struggling Giants.  As long as Dalton and Green are on the field together, this team could hang with anyone.  This week they have their weakest opponent of the season.  They should be ok.

Pick: Bengals

Jets vs. Rams

Both of these teams haven’t looked that great.  I’ve seen some rankings that really like the Rams though.  I guess when you look at each team the Rams are less of a mess.

Pick: Rams

Eagles vs. Redskins

This one was a tough one for me.  I am actually really excited to see an offense by the Eagles that flows through McCoy and not through Vick.  I think his absence in the offense might just facilitate that.  Right?  We will see how rattled Nick Foles gets.  The Redskins will be putting points on the board as longs as RG3 doesn’t get too crazy and puts himself in a position to get hurt again. 

Pick: Eagles

Buccaneers vs. Panthers

The Bucs are on a roll. They have won 4 of their last 5 and now take on an inconsistent Panthers team.  If Martin gets involved early and Freeman keeps being efficient, rack up another win for this Tampa Bay team.

Pick: Buccaneers

Jaguars vs. Texans

My upset pick of the weak, is not this game.  The Texans really should destroy the Jags.  Now we saw the Jaguars keep up with the Packers so they aren’t that bad right?  I just don’t see it happening.

Pick: Texans

Saints vs. Raiders

The Raiders are an odd team and often times I never know what to expect from them.  They are inconsistent.  They manage to almost beat the then undefeated Falcons then barely squeak by the lowly Jaguars.  Now Palmer could very well just go off against this defense with big long plays from Moore and check downs to Meyers but can they really keep up with Brees?

Pick: Saints

Chargers vs. Broncos

The Broncos are looking scary.  I mean like one of the best teams in the AFC scary.  Manning is a MVP candidate to some and he only builds on his case after each game.  If this game were close, I wouldn’t be shocked.  I also wouldn’t be shocked if the Broncos lay into the Chargers.

Pick: Broncos

Colts vs. Patriots

Ok this really is my upset of the week.  I am drinking the Andrew Luck Kool-Aid.  This team looks alive and excited.  They aren’t out there struggling to not get their ass kicked behind Curtis Painter.  They are out there competing week in and week out.  Wayne has proved he isn’t that old yet and can still dominate opposing defenses.  They will have to score a lot of points I think to keep up with the Pats.  If however, Hernandez and Welker (who are both questionable) don’t play.  Lookout.

Pick: Colts

Ravens vs. Seelers

Both defenses are beat up.  The Steelers are without starting quarterback and main reason they are 6-3 this year, Big Ben.  The Ravens, well they have their offense in tact.  I believe Leftwich gets the start.  I just don’t see Byron carrying this team the way Roethlisberger does. 

Pick: Ravens

Bears vs. 49ers

In this one we have another starting quarterback out.  Now if they weren’t playing the 49ers defense I would say it wouldn’t matter.  The offense could be more Forte focused but against this rush defense?  No way.  The 49ers are going to have to get a little creative to score as well.  This could be a very close game regardless of who is at quarterback for the Bears but I’m going with the healthy offense.

Pick: 49ers

Thursday Night Pick for Week 11

Week 10: 10-4  Overall: 90-55

Dolphins vs. Bills

This one was actually pretty tough for me.  CJ Spiller will be getting more touches now that Fred Jackson is hurt again, which is a good thing for Buffalo.  I'm not saying he'll maintain his ridiculous 7.3 YPC average but he's explosive.  He is going up against a pretty tough run defense but the Dolphins did just come off a blowout loss to the Titans where Chris Johnson totaled up 126.  The Bill's defense is atrocious so if Miami and their rookie quarter back are going to come out of their slump, this is the week to do it.

Pick: Dolphins

Week 9 Picks

Week 9: 9-5  Overall: 81-51

Giants vs. Bengals

The Bengals are struggling this year to reach .500 but with Dalton and Green on the team still they are fully capable of keeping up with most anyone.  The Giants have been winning in spite of less than exceptional play out of Eli.  Once Nicks gets more involved (which you’d assume has to be eventually), this offense should start clicking.

Pick: Giants

Titans vs. Dolphins

Titans get Jake Locker back in the fold this week against the Dolphins.  Although Chris Johnson may have a hard time getting things going against this rush defense, they can be thrown on.  Although the Dolphins are the better team, I see the Titans pulling out the W.

Pick: Titans

Lions vs. Vikings

The Vikings have lost two straight and do not look like they are on the right track.  The once tough defense of the Vikings, now are having a tough time stopping people from scoring on them.  The Lions who have been great offensively and defensively, finally are making that translate to wins.  Their streak will continue.

Pick: Lions

Bills vs. Patriots

The Bills are in shambles.  They aren’t even confident in Fitzpatrick who just got a huge contract last year.  They also cannot stop the run.  Look for a big day from Ridley. 

Pick: Patriots

Falcons vs. Saints

I don’t know about you but I keep waiting for the Falcons to lose a game and for the Saints to start winning more often.  Well the Saints for 3-1 the past 4 weeks but would probably need to win out in order to sneak in the playoffs.  I think they’ll have a hard time stopping Matty Ice and this potent offense though.

Pick: Falcons

Chargers vs. Buccaneers

The Chargers are hot and cold all year and the Bucs are streaking.  Freeman has being playing some of his best football the past few weeks and it finally looks like Doug Martin is living up to the hype.  The Chargers are tough to run on so look for Vincent Jackson to have a big game against his former team.

Pick: Buccaneers

Broncos vs. Panthers

The Broncos are on fire still and look to put some more hurting on the Panthers.  Steve Smith finally got his first TD last week but the Broncos defense is much better than Washington’s.  Manning will keep it rolling.

Pick: Broncos

Raiders vs. Ravens

People are saying the Ravens aren’t as good as their 6-2 record.  Although the Raiders are pesky, the Ravens are the better team.

Pick: Ravens

Jets vs. Seahawks

I’m not so sure that the Seahawks will win by the 6 point spread but they should beat the lowly Jets.  Look for Lynch to get a heavy workload after a few weeks of a pass heavy offense.

Picks: Seahawks

Cowboys vs. Eagles

This pick was a tough one.  These two teams are pretty similarly disappointing.  Until McCoy gets more involved the Eagles offense will continue to turn the ball over with Vick in charge.  The Cowboys have their own struggles but Romo is due for a big game like he occasionally gets.

Pick: Cowboys

Rams vs. 49ers

The Rams will have a really tough time scoring against this D. 

Pick: 49ers

Texans vs. Bears

This is the game of the week by far.  Some people might even think of this as a SuperBowl preview.  The Bears defense has been ridiculously good.  Cutler and Marshall have been hooking up often and Forte continues to run the ball well.  The Texans who in my opinion are the best team in the AFC will face the team who is playing the best football in the NFL right now.

Pick: Bears

Chiefs vs. Steelers

The Steelers should roll on the Chiefs.  A 12 point spread is quite a lot but they could very easily reach that.

Pick: Steelers

Thursday Night Pick Week 10

Week 9: 9-5  Overall: 81-51

Colts vs. Jaguars

The Colts are the better team especially with Luck behind the helm.  I wont go into details.  The Jaguars should have a tough time keeping up.

Pick: Colts